BTC Fear & Greed Index Remains Supportive of a BTC Return to $25,000

Key Insights:

• It was a bearish Saturday, with BTC falling by 0.50% to end the day at $23,315.
• US economic indicators from Friday continued to weigh, with increased regulatory scrutiny adding to the bearish mood.
• However, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 58/100, supported by a BTC hold onto the $23,000 handle.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.50%. Following a 0.25% loss on Friday, BTC ended the day at $23,315. Despite the bearish session, BTC avoided a return to $23,000 for the third consecutive session.

After a range-bound morning, BTC rose to an early afternoon high of $23,580. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,684, BTC fell to a final-hour low of $23,248. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,206, BTC ended the day at $23,315.

US Economic Indicators and Fed Fear Left BTC in the Red

There were no market events to guide investors on Saturday. The lack of external market forces left Friday’s US Jobs Report and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI to test investor resilience.

An unexpected surge in nonfarm payrolls, wage growth, and a fall in the US unemployment rate to 3.4% raised fears of a 50-basis point interest rate hike in March. A sharp increase in service sector activity also supported a more bullish Fed policy outlook.

Investors will need to monitor FOMC member chatter between now and the US CPI Report, due out on February 14. A pickup in inflationary pressure would fuel Fed Fear and likely support a 50-basis point Fed interest rate hike.

From the crypto market, increased regulatory chatter and US lawmaker scrutiny remain crypto headwinds. Investors need to track the news wires for Silvergate Bank, FTX, and Genesis updates.

Following the NASDAQ Composite Index fall on Friday and the latest US stats, the NASDAQ mini will also provide direction in the final hour.

The Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady Despite Bearish BTC Session

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index held steady at 58/100. There were no crypto events to influence investor sentiment on Saturday. While BTC had a bearish session, avoiding sub-$23,000 reflected investor resilience and supported the hold.

Near-term, the Index must avoid the Neutral zone to support a BTC run at $25,000. A fall into the Fear zone would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.01% to $23,318. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $23,230 before finding support.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $23,381 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,514 and the Saturday high of $23,580. A return to $23,500 would signal a bullish session. However, the crypto news wires will need to be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $23,713 and resistance at $24,000. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $24,045.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,182 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled crypto sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$23,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $23,049 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $22,717.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $23,246. The 50-day EMA moved away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($23,246) would support a breakout from R1 ($23,514) to target R2 ($23,713) and $24,000. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($23,246) would support a slide through S1 ($23,182) to bring S2 ($23,049) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.