BTC Fear & Greed Index Signals a Range-Bound Sunday Session

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.37% to end the day at $16,864.
• Holiday trading volumes left BTC to move sideways throughout the session as investors took time out from an eventful end to the year.
• The Fear & Greed Index held steady at 29/100, signaling another range-bound session.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.37%. Reversing a 0.21% loss from Friday, BTC ended the day at $16,864. Notably, BTC failed to revisit $17,000 for the fourth consecutive session while ending a three-day losing streak.

A bullish session saw BTC rise from an early low of $16,802 to a late afternoon high of $16,891. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,922, BTC eased back to end the day at $16,864.

Trading Volumes Slide at the Start of the Holidays

On Saturday, investors had no crypto events or economic indicators to consider. The lack of catalysts left BTC within an $89 range throughout the Saturday session. Volumes were also lower going into the holidays.

Crypto news stories had little influence, despite SEC Chair Gary Gensler vowing to target crypto firms that do not adhere to securities laws. According to a Bloomberg report, the SEC Chair said that Proof-of-Reserves are not enough to protect investors.

Gensler also reportedly said, “the agency’s patience is wearing thin for digital assets and other firms that shirk its regulations.” Gensler’s comments come as the SEC battle against Ripple remains ongoing, with an SEC victory uncertain.

Today, trading volumes will likely remain at low levels that would leave BTC in another range-bound session. However, investors should monitor the crypto news wires for any negative crypto news that could cause a sharp price move.

The Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady at 29/100

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index held steady at 29/100, supported by a bullish BTC session.

An uneventful session left BTC in a tight range, with the Index signaling a similar session ahead. The lack of influence from the news wires left investors to consider the latest round of US stats that could allow the Fed to take its foot off the gas and for the US economy to avoid a hard landing.

While sentiment towards the Fed and the US economy remains a key driver, regulatory risk is another consideration for investors. An SEC that continues to regulate by enforcement could adversely affect crypto market conditions near-term until there is greater clarity on the classification of cryptos and a clear regulatory framework.

Avoiding sub-20/100 remains the key near-term. The bulls will need to target the pre-FTX collapse November 6 high of 40/100 to support a BTC run at $20,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.05% to $16,855. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $18,874 before falling to a low of $18,854.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $16,852 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,903. A BTC return to $16,900 would signal a bullish session. However, the crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,941 and resistance at $17,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,030.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,814 into play. Barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,750. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,763 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $16,674.

An adverse crypto market event would bring sub-$16,000 into play.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, BTC sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $16,885. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day ($16,885) would support a breakout from R1 ($16,903) to target R2 ($16,941) and the 100-day ($16,949). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($16,885) would leave BTC under pressure.