BTC Fear & Greed Index Slips to 22 Despite a BTC Run at $20,000

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) extended its winning streak to three sessions with a 1.90% gain to end the week up 1.65%.
• Fed fear continued to subside on Sunday, delivering another bullish session ahead of stats from China and the US on Monday.
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index slips from 23/100 to 22/100 despite a bullish end to the week for BTC and the broader crypto market.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.90%. Following a 0.29% gain on Saturday, BTC ended the week up 1.65% to $19,585. Notably, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the sixteenth consecutive session while also avoiding sub-$19,000 for a second session.

A bearish morning saw BTC fall to a mid-day low of $19,086. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,136 before rallying to a late high of $19,707. BTC broke through the day’s Major Resistance Levels to wrap up the week at $19,585. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $19,515 delivered late support.

Investors’ reaction to less hawkish Fed chatter from Friday continued to support demand for riskier assets. This morning, the FedWatch Tool had the probability of November and December rate hikes at 87.5% and 48.7%, respectively. One week ago, the likelihood of a 75-basis point hike in December stood at 69.8%.

Today, prelim October private sector PMIs for the US will draw interest. A pickup in service sector activity and hiring across the private sector could refuel bets of a 75-basis point Fed rate hike in December.

This morning, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was up 112 points, supporting a bullish start to the week.

The Fear & Greed Index Falls to 22/100 Despite a Bullish BTC Session

Today, the Fear & Greed Index slipped from 23/100 to 22/100. The fall deeper into the Extreme Fear zone came despite the bullish Sunday session for BTC and the broader crypto market.

While bets of a 75-basis point Fed rate hike in December have eased, economic uncertainty remains because of the war in Ukraine and Fed monetary policy. Economic indicators from the US will also be a test for investors today.

However, crypto-friendly stats should support an Index return to the Fear zone.

For the bulls, the Index will need to continue avoiding sub-20/100 to support a shift in sentiment. However, a fall to sub-20/100 would signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.06% to $19,597.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $19,459 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,833. Economic data from the US would need to be crypto-friendly to support a breakout from the Sunday high of $19,707.

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $20,080 and $20,500 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $20,701.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,212 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$19,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,838.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,217.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $19,513.

The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA to deliver bullish signals.

BTC needs to avoid the 200-day EMA ($19,513) to give the bulls a run at R1 ($19,833) and a return to $20,000. However, a fall through the 200-day EMA ($19,513) would give the bears a run at the 100-day EMA ($19,317), the 50-day EMA ($19,267), and S1 ($19,212).