BTC Fear & Greed Index Targets the Fear Zone Despite a Bearish BTC

Key Insights:

• On Tuesday, bitcoin (BTC) ended a mini two-day winning streak, falling by 1.13% to $19,334.
• Better-than-expected US economic indicators left BTC in the red, while upbeat corporate earnings supported another bullish session for the NASDAQ 100.
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index rose from 22/100 to 23/100, reflecting investor resilience.

On Tuesday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.13%. Partially reversing a 1.49% gain from Monday, BTC ended the day at $19,334. Notably, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the eleventh consecutive session while avoiding a return to sub-$19,000 for a Third session.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to a mid-morning high of $19,709. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,770, BTC slid to a late low of $19,100. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,252 before a partial recovery to end the day at $19,334.

US economic indicators weighed on BTC and the broader crypto market. Industrial production increased by 0.4% in September, reversing a 0.1% decline from August. Economists forecast a 0.1% rise. After an initial increase upon release of the numbers, the market reaction was evident in the chart below.

US corporate earnings failed to support a rebound, despite better-than-forecast results from Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Lockheed Martin (LMT).

While failing to provide crypto market support, upbeat earnings and positive US stats delivered another bullish session for the NASDAQ 100. On Tuesday, the NASDAQ rose by 0.90%.

Today, US economic indicators should have a muted impact on Fed monetary policy and the crypto market. Housing sector numbers should leave the Fed in focus. This morning, the NASDAQ Mini was up 152 points.

The Fear & Greed Index Inches Higher Again Despite BTC Loss

Today, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 22/100 to 23/100. The increase was modest, with BTC falling short of $20,000 for an eleventh consecutive session. Notably, the Index increased while BTC ended the day in the red.

Neither the Index nor BTC have managed to break free of recent ranges, with Fed fear continuing to deliver economic uncertainty.

For the bulls, the Index will need to continue avoiding sub-20/100 to support a shift in sentiment. However, a fall to sub-20/100 would signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.16% to $19,303. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $19,361 before falling to a low of $19,293.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $19,381 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,662 and the Tuesday high of $19,709. A BTC move through the Tuesday high of $19,709 would signal a bullish session. However, FOMC member chatter needs to be crypto-friendly to support a breakout.

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,990 and $20,000 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $20,599.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,053 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$18,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,772 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,163.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,346.

The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA to deliver bearish signals.

BTC needs to move through the 50-day EMA and the 100-day EMA ($19,399) to target the 200-day EMA ($19,618) and R1 ($19,662). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($19,346) would leave the S1 ($19,053) in view.