BTC Price Forecast: Can Bitcoin Break $100K as ETF Flows Shift?

BTC Holds Above $95,000 Despite Pullback

On Saturday, November 30, BTC dropped by 1.14%, partially reversing a 1.76% gain from Friday, closing at $96,263. BTC held above the crucial $95,000 level for the second successive session, signaling positive demand.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Outflows Leave BTC Short of $100,000

On Friday, the US BTC-spot ETF market registered net inflows for the second session. According to Farside Investors:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported net inflows of $137.5 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $106.5.
• VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) saw net inflows of $33.1 million.

While six issuers reported net inflows, the US BTC-spot ETF market ended a seven-week inflow streak, with net outflows of $153.1 million in the week ending November 29. Profit-taking likely impacted demand for BTC-spot ETFs.

However, November was a stellar month for the US BTC-spot ETF market, which had net inflows of $6,681 million, the highest since January 2024’s launch. Net inflows exceeded $6 billion for only the second month.

BlackRock’s (BLK) IBIT ETF led November inflows, totaling $5,334 million. US BTC-spot ETF flow trends tilted the demand-supply balance in BTC’s favor, supporting November all-time high of $99,318.

The US BTC-spot ETF market and anticipated overhaul of anti-crypto federal agencies have spurred crypto-spot ETF filings, targeting BTC, ETH, and altcoins, including XRP.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas shared an updated table of crypto-spot ETF filings and upcoming deadlines.

ETF Store President Nate Geraci remarked on the crypto-spot ETF filings, saying,

“Bitcoin & ether, crypto index, solana, xrp, litecoin, & hbar ETFs. A year ago, there weren’t even spot btc ETFs. By this time next year, might be able to build substantial multi crypto asset portfolio w/ ETFs.”

Dive deeper into the influence of BTC-spot ETF market flows on price action. Follow our analysis and forecasts to manage crypto-related risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Despite Saturday’s pullback, BTC sits well above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), sending bullish price signals.

Breaking above November 22’s high of $99,318 could allow the bulls to target $100,000. A breakout from $100,000 may signal a move toward $120,000.

Investors should monitor trends in US BTC-spot ETF market-related news and updates on the SEC leadership race.

Conversely, a drop below $95,000 may bring the $90,000 mark into play. A fall through $90,000 could signal a fall toward $87,500.

With a 66.09 14-day RSI reading, BTC could return to its all-time high of $99,318 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).

Ethereum Analysis

ETH sits well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price trends.

An ETH break above Saturday’s high of $3,741 could support a move toward the $3,835 resistance level. Furthermore, a breakout from the $3,835 resistance level may bring the $4,000 level into play.

US ETH-spot ETF market-related updates also require consideration. ETH-spot ETF inflows from the week ending November 29 drove ETH demand on Saturday. The US ETH-spot ETF market registered net inflows of $466.5 million, outperforming the US BTC-spot ETF market.

Conversely, an ETH break below $3,600 could signal a drop toward the $3,480 support level. A fall through the $3,480 support level may bring the $3,244 support level into play.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 68.99, suggests an ETH move to Saturday’s high of $3,741 before entering overbought territory.

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