BTC Price Forecast: ETF Support and Key US Data Could Fuel Next Bitcoin Surge

BTC inches closer to $70,000 as market jitters subside

On Saturday, October 26, BTC advanced by 0.51%, partially reversing a 1.98% loss from the previous session, closing at $67,123. The broader crypto market gained 0.88%, bringing the total market cap to $2.232 trillion.

Tether CEO Dismisses WSJ Investigation Report

Investor jitters calmed following news of the FBI investigating Tether (USDT) for potential sanction violations and breaches of anti-money laundering regulations.

On Friday, October 25, the Wall Street Journal published an article claiming the US federal government was investigating Tether for infractions.

However, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino dismissed the WSJ claims. On Friday, Tether issued a statement saying,

“It is wildly irresponsible for WSJ to write articles with reckless allegations with such certainty when no authorities have gone on the record to confirm these rumors, and no sources are named. These stories are based on pure rank speculation despite Tether confirming that it has no knowledge of any such investigations into the company.”

Tether went on to say,

“The article also carelessly glosses over Tether’s well-documented and extensive dealings with law enforcement to crack down on bad actors seeking to misuse tether and other cryptocurrencies.”

Wall Street Journal and Crypto

The WSJ has previously targeted the crypto space. In October 2023, Senator Elizabeth Warren and more than 100 lawmakers co-signed a letter to the US administration, calling for greater oversight to address crypto use in financing terrorism. The letter cited a WSJ article that alleged crypto was among several tools used by terrorist groups to raise funds.

The crypto market’s reaction to Friday’s WSJ article and previous crypto articles highlighted the influence of mainstream media on investor sentiment. Furthermore, Senator Warren and others have leveraged WSJ reports to fuel anti-crypto sentiment.

In December 2023, Senator Warren continued to use the WSJ article to drive support for the Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act despite evidence countering the WSJ’s claims. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon famously said,

“If I was the government, I would close it down.”

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Extends Weekly Inflow Streak

While BTC reacted to the WSJ report, US BTC-spot ETF flow trends cushioned the downside for BTC. On Friday, October 25, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $402 million, contributing to a weekly total of $997.6 million. US BTC-spot ETF inflows were down from the previous week’s $2,129.6 million but remained robust. According to Farside Investors:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the way, with net inflows of $1,147 million in the week ending October 25. (Previous week: +$1,141 million).
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows of $71.6 million. (PW: -$318.8 million).
• However, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $206.4 million (PW: +$306.1 million).
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) had net outflows of $15.2 million. (PW: +$149.8 million).
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reported net outflows of $11.9 million. (PW: +$91.5 million).

Recent US BTC-spot ETF market flows have eased concerns about oversupply, supporting BTC’s move toward $70,000.

Outlook: US Presidential Election, Economic Indicators, and the Fed

Investors must stay alert in the coming week. Crucial US economic indicators, including labor market and inflation reports, could influence the Fed rate path.

Upbeat numbers could temper bets on a December Fed rate cut and curb BTC demand. The Personal Income and Outlays Report (Thurs) and Jobs Report (Fri) will be pivotal. Conversely, softer inflation and moderately weaker labor market data could boost December fed rate cut bets. A more dovish fed rate path may push BTC through $70,000.

Will the US election push BTC beyond $70,000?

The US Presidential Election will be another focal point. Trump remains the crypto vote despite Kamala Harris’s recent support for a crypto regulatory framework. Rising support for Trump could also drive BTC toward $70,000.

Stay updated with our real-time BTC analysis for further insights on managing potential risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC remains well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming bullish price trends.

A breakout from $67,500 could support a move toward the $69,000 resistance level and October 21’s high of $69,402. Furthermore, a return to $69,402 could allow the bulls to test resistance at $70,000 to target the all-time high of $73,808.

Investors should consider sentiment toward the Fed rate path, the US Presidential Election, and SEC activity.

Conversely, a break below $66,500 could signal a fall toward the 50-day EMA and the $64,000 support level. Buying pressure may intensify at $64,000. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the $64,000 support level.

With a 57.34 14-day RSI reading, BTC may return to $70,000 before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH sits below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.

An ETH breakout from the 50-day EMA could bring the $2,664 resistance level into play. Furthermore, a break above the $2,664 resistance level may signal a move toward the 200-day EMA.

US ETH-spot ETF market-related updates also require consideration.

Conversely, a break below the $2,403 support level may give the bears a run at the $2,124 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 44.91, suggests an ETH drop to the $2,124 support level before entering oversold territory.