BTC Price Forecast: Trump Appointments; ETF Market Inflows Signal Path to $120K

BTC Holds at $99,000 Amid Robust Spot ETF Demand

On Saturday, December 7, BTC edged 0.03% higher, consolidating Friday’s 2.68% gain to close at $99,728. Significantly, BTC ended the session at the $99k mark for only the second time, suggesting robust demand.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Flows Signal Unwavering Demand

On Friday, the US BTC-spot ETF market extended its net inflow streak to seven sessions, with net inflows of $376.6 million. It was an impressive week for the BTC-spot ETF market, with total net inflows of $2,729.7 million, sending BTC to a record high of $103,630.

According to Farside Investors:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported weekly net inflows of $2,630.1 million in the week ending December 6.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $262.3.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust saw net inflows of $164.3 million.

BlackRock’s (BLK) IBIT leads the charge, attracting substantial investor interest.

Since launching on January 11, IBIT has registered total net inflows of $34,369 million, outpacing Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s (GBTC) outflows of $20,834 million.

This week, the US BTC-spot ETF market collectively surpassed Satoshi Nakamoto holdings, solidifying their position as the largest BTC holder.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas shared a post from Shaun Edmondson, who remarked on the milestone, saying,

“Massive buying day from US Spot #Bitcoin ETFs yesterday. Collectively, they now hold more Bitcoin than Satoshi. Utterly relentless and staggering acquisitions since January.”

BlackRock sits above MicroStrategy (MSTR) and the US government by BTC holdings.

Strategic Reserve Developments Could Reshape BTC Market

The US government ranks seventh in the rankings, highlighting its influence on supply-demand trends.

President-elect Trump’s plan to designate BTC as a US strategic reserve asset may shift the US government into a BTC ‘HODLER’ position. This would mitigate oversupply risk, tilting supply-demand trends in BTC’s favor.

Scott Bissent’s appointment as US Treasury Secretary and Paul Atkins’ nomination as SEC Chair are positive steps toward BTC becoming a strategic reserve asset.

Congress, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and the President must approve BTC as a strategic reserve asset.

Additionally, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the SEC must establish clear regulatory guidelines, highlighting the importance of Trump’s CFTC Chair nomination.

BTC Price Outlook Hinges on US BTC-Spot ETF Demand and Trump’s Nomination

BTC price trends will hinge on ETF flows, US government activity, and regulatory appointments. A pro-crypto CFTC Chair and rising demand for BTC-spot ETFs could drive BTC toward $120,000. The outlook is cautiously optimistic.

Conversely, a slump in demand for BTC-spot ETFs and US government BTC transfers could impact the supply-demand balance. Oversupply concerns may drag BTC toward $90,000. Monitoring ETF market activity and regulatory developments remains essential.

Dive deeper into the influence of BTC-spot ETF market flows on price action. Follow our analysis and forecasts to manage crypto-related risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Following a positive week, BTC remains comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), affirming bullish price signals.

Breaking above December 5’s all-time high of $103,630 could enable the bulls to target $110,000. A breakout from $110,000 would bring $120,000 into play.

Investors should consider trends in US BTC-spot ETF market-related news, US government BTC movements, and Trump-related news.

Conversely, a break below $95,000 will likely bring the $90,000 mark into play. A drop through $90,000 could enable the bears to target $87,500, a crucial support level.

With a 67.17 14-day RSI reading, BTC could return to its all-time high of $103,630 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).

Ethereum Analysis

Turning to ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, ETH sits well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming bullish price trends.

An ETH break above December 6’s high of $4,094 could signal a move toward the $4,150 mark. Furthermore, a breakout from $4,150 may bring $4,300 into play.

Updates from the US ETH-spot ETF market also require consideration. The US ETH-spot ETF market saw net inflows of $836.6 million in the week ending December 6, driving ETH demand. Significantly, the US ETH-spot ETF market extended its net inflow streak to 10 sessions on Friday, sending ETH to $4,000.

Conversely, an ETH break below the $3,835 support level could bring the $3,480 support level into play.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 71.90, shows ETH in overbought territory (> 70). Selling pressure will likely intensify at Friday’s high of $4,094.

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