BTC Price Forecast: Trump’s BTC Push and ETF Demand Hint at Potential $100K Move

BTC Extends Rally Amid Trump Victory Impact

On Saturday, November 9, BTC advanced by 0.19%, consolidating Trump’s election victory-fueled rally, closing at $76,619. Significantly, BTC extended its winning streak to five sessions, holding onto the $76,000 handle for the second consecutive day.

On Sunday, November 10, BTC extended its gains, rallying 3.36% to $79,196. BTC climbed to an all-time high of $79,208.

Trump’s Victory Drives US BTC-Spot ETF Market Inflows and BTC Demand

The crypto market continued to react to Trump’s presidential election victory, with US BTC-spot ETFs seeing substantial inflows.

For the week ending November 8, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported net inflows of $1,864.8 million (previous week: $2,220.2 million), according to Farside Investors. Key weekly flow trends included:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the net inflows, recording $1,251.1 million for the week. (Previous week: +$2,148.9 million).
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows of $295.4 million on Wednesday. (PW: +$89.8 million).
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) had net inflows of $76.8 million. (PW: -$12.3 million).
• However, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $6.2 million. (PW: -$38.9 million).

Significantly, IBIT reported net inflows of $1,119.9 million on Thursday, November 7, as investors responded strongly to both Trump’s win and the Fed interest rate decision. The US Federal Reserve contributed to Thursday’s trends, cutting the Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas commented on BTC-spot ETF inflows, saying,

“HOOVER CITY: Bitcoin ETFs took in a record-smashing $1.4b yesterday (the Trump effect). IBIT alone was +$1.1b. That’s +$6.7b in past mo and $25.5b YTD. All told they feasted on about 18k btc in one day (vs 450 mined) and are now 93% of the way to passing Satoshi’s 1.1mil btc.”

While the Fed rate path is pivotal for BTC demand, Trump’s crypto policies will likely be crucial.

Demand May Outstrip Supply Signaling a BTC Move Toward $100,000

During campaigning, Trump pledged to establish BTC as a US strategic reserve and make the US government a BTC HODLER. The US government currently holds 208,109 BTC, equivalent to $16.57 billion. A commitment to increase the US government’s holdings could mitigate oversupply risks, potentially driving BTC toward the $100,000 mark.

On Saturday, MicroStrategy (MSTR) founder and Chairman Michael Saylor commented,

“Nations will adopt Bitcoin as a Treasury Reserve Asset.”

MicroStrategy’s stock surged 17.72% for the week ending November 8, outmuscling BTC, which advanced by 14.4% (Monday to Sunday). Meanwhile, the total crypto market cap jumped 18% to $2.653 trillion (Monday to Sunday).

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Following this week’s rally, BTC sits well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.

Breaking above November 10’s high of $79,404 could signal a move toward $85,000. Furthermore, a breakout from $85,000 may enable the bulls to target $100,000.

Investors should consider bets on a December Fed rate cut and US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends.

Conversely, a BTC drop below $75,000 could bring the $70,000 level into play. A drop below $70,000 may allow the bears to target the $69,000 support level.

With a 67.11 14-day RSI reading, BTC may climb to $80,000 before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH remains above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs after Thursday’s breakout, sending bullish price signals.

An ETH break above the $3,244 resistance level could signal a move toward the $3,480 resistance level. Furthermore, a breakout from the $3,480 resistance level may bring the $3,835 resistance level into play.

US ETH-spot ETF market-related updates also require consideration.

Conversely, an ETH a fall through the $3,033 support level may signal a drop toward the 200-day EMA.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 75.96, shows ETH in overbought territory. Selling pressure could intensify at Sunday’s high of $3,210.