BTC Price Outlook: ETF Outflows and SBR Debate Weigh on Sentiment

BTC Returns to $95k: Will Trump Deliver on SBR Pledge?

On Saturday, December 28, BTC advanced by 0.89%, partially offsetting Friday’s 1.52% loss, closing at $95,078. However, BTC fell short of the crucial $100k psychological threshold for the ninth consecutive session.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market: IBIT Records Largest Weekly Outflows Since May

The US BTC-spot ETF market had a difficult week ending December 27 as profit-taking weighed on investor sentiment. According to Farside Investors:

• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net outflows of $183 million in the week ending December 27.
• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported net outflows of $21.1 million, the largest outflows since May.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) had net outflows of $58.9 million.
• Six of the eleven issuers registered net outflows for the week ending December 27.

Despite the weekly outflows, BlackRock’s (BLK) IBIT remains the backbone of the BTC-spot ETF market. However, last week’s outflows underscored investor concerns over the Fed rate path outlook and skepticism surrounding a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Speculation Challenges BTC Demand

Market speculation on BTC as a US strategic reserve asset continued to affect demand. On Saturday, CryptoQuant.com founder and CEO Ki Young Ju gave his views on an SBR, saying,

“I personally support the idea of a Bitcoin Standard. However, I question whether the US, while continuing to grow as other economies stagnate, would adopt Bitcoin as a strategic asset. For the debate to gain serious momentum, the US would need to see its global economic dominance genuinely threatened. At present, market sentiment suggests confidence in the US’s continued supremacy.”

Ki Young Ju also suggested Trump might backtrack on his pre-election BTC stance if the US economy remains resilient, strengthening the greenback, saying,

“He could easily step back from his Bitcoin advocacy, citing changing priorities, without alienating his voter base.”

BTC could face intense selling pressure if Trump U-turns on an SBR. Investors expect an SBR to tilt the supply-demand balance in BTC’s favor. If the US government does not approve BTC becoming a strategic reserve asset, it could also remain a BTC seller, raising oversupply risk. The US government currently holds 198,109 BTC, valued at $18.82 billion, in its crypto stockpile.

Bitcoin Reserve Act-related news will be crucial in the near term. Bipartisan support for the bill could drive BTC above its December 17 all-time high of $108,231. Conversely, a lack of progress toward an SBR could drag BTC below the $90k mark.

The Trump administration will need Congress, the Federal Reserve, and the US Treasury Department to approve BTC as a strategic reserve asset.

Dive deeper into the influence of macroeconomic data, US crypto policies, and BTC-spot ETF market flows on price action. Follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto-related risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Despite its retreat from the December 17 record high, BTC sits above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), indicating a bullish price trend.

A return to $97,500 would support a move toward $100k, a crucial psychological resistance level. Furthermore, a breakout from $100k could enable the bulls to target its all-time high of $108,231.

Investors should consider US government-related activity and US BTC-spot ETF market-related news.

Conversely, a BTC drop below Monday’s low of $92,465 could indicate a potential drop to the $90,742 support level. A break below the $90,742 support level may bring the $86,263 support level into play.

With a 44.98 14-day RSI reading, BTC could drop below the $90,742 support level before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).

To access real-time BTC price data and technical indicators, click here to learn more.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH, still the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, hovers below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs send bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

An ETH breakout from the 50-day EMA would support a move toward the $3,563 resistance level. A break above the $3,563 resistance level could bring the $4,085 resistance level into play.

ETH-spot ETF flow trends remain crucial to near-term price moves.

Conversely, an ETH drop below the $3,287 support level could signal a fall toward the 200-day EMA and the $3,000 level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 43.77, suggests ETH could drop to the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory. (RSI below 30).

Stay Updated on Crypto Trends

Stay updated on Bitcoin’s road back to $100k—follow our live coverage. Follow ETF flows, regulatory updates, and macroeconomic trends here to manage risks effectively.