BTC Return to $28,000 Hinged on PBoC Moves and Fed Chair Powell

Key Insights:

• On Monday, BTC revisited the $27,000 handle, rising 1.90% to end the day at $26,858.
• Blackrock ETF chatter delivered a bullish session, the upside coming despite SEC and Fed angst.
• The technical indicators remained bullish, signaling a return to $27,500.

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.90%. Reversing a 0.67% loss from Sunday, BTC ended the day at $26,858. Significantly, BTC revisited the $27,000 handle for the first time since June 7.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to a first-hour low of $26,292. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,180, BTC rose to a late afternoon high of $27,075. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,633 and briefly through the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $26,907 before ending the day at $26,858.

Blackrock Bitcoin ETF Chatter Delivers Support

It was a quiet Monday, with the US markets closed for Juneteenth Day. A lack of US economic indicators left BTC in the hands of the crypto news wires.

While Binance remained a talking point, hopes of a successful launch of the Blackrock Bitcoin ETF supported a bullish session.

BTC Inc. CEO David Bailey talked optimistically about an SEC approval, saying,

“Heard a compelling case today that the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF could be approved imminently (days to weeks). Wouldn’t that be something? A decade of failed attempts, BlackRock shows up and they can get it immediately. A testament to our corrupted financial system. Poetic really.”

An SEC approval of the BlackRock ETF would support an influx of institutional money, a boon for BTC and the broader crypto market.

Blackrock (BLK) filed the necessary documentation with the SEC  on June 15 to launch the iShares Bitcoin Trust.

The Day Ahead

It is a busy Tuesday session, with Fed Chair Powell testimony likely to influence. Hawkish chatter and the talk of higher for longer to tame inflation would weigh on riskier assets.

Early this morning, the PBoC is in focus, with economists expecting China’s central bank to cut the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates to support the Chinese economy. Accommodative central bank moves are BTC positive.

While the central banks will move the dial, regulatory activity and lawmaker chatter will also need consideration.

However, the SEC cases against Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN) remain the focal points.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 0.34% to $26,948. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $26,824 before rising to a high of $26,992.

BTC Technical Indicators

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 200-day EMA ($26,647). The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above the 200-day EMA ($26,647) would support a move through R1 ($27,191) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($27,525). However, a fall through the 200-day EMA ($26,647) would bring S1 ($26,408) and the 100-day ($26,338) and 50-day ($26,264) EMAs into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.

Resistance & Support Levels

BTC needs to avoid the $26,742 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $27,191. A move through the Monday high of $27,075 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires and Fed Chair Powell should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,525 and resistance at $28,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $28,308.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,408 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $25,959. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,176.