BTC Target Remains $31,000 as the Focus Turns to SEC Scrutiny

Key Insights:

• BTC ended the Saturday session with a 0.60% loss but avoided sub-$30,000 for the second time since May 2022.
• Profit-taking left BTC on the back foot throughout the session as investors digested the latest from the SEC and US economic calendar.
• The technical indicators remain bullish, signaling a run to $35,000.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.60%. Reversing a 0.24% gain from Friday, BTC ended the day at $30,278. While falling short of the Friday 2023 high, BTC avoided sub-$30,000 for the second time since May 2022.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to a first-hour high of $30,575. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $30,953, BTC fell to a late afternoon low of $30,192. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $29,986, BTC revisited the $30,300 handle before ending the session at $30,278.

Profit-Taking Pegs BTC Back After a Hectic Week

It was a quiet Saturday session, with no economic indicators or Fed chatter for investors to consider.

The quiet session left investors to consider the events of the week and the impact of the US economic indicators on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy plans.

While inflation came in softer, the US Jobs Report and hawkish Fed chatter continued to signal a 25-basis point interest rate hike in May, with some uncertainty over what to expect in H2 2023.

Despite Fed projections of a banking crisis-fueled recession in late 2023, bank earnings impressed on Friday, supporting riskier assets. Blackrock (BLK), Citi (C), JPMorgan (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) beat earnings forecasts.

However, SEC regulation by enforcement continues to test investor sentiment, with the SEC turning its attention to the DeFi space. However, disagreements within the SEC and a failure of regulators to agree on the classification of cryptos softened the impact on the crypto market.

The Day Ahead

SEC v Ripple case-related chatter and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will need consideration. However, regulatory activity, US lawmaker commentary, and Fed chatter will move the dial.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler will give testimony at a digital assets sub-committee hearing on Tuesday. Regulation by enforcement and the sweeping statement that all cryptos, except BTC, are securities will likely be focal points. How lawmakers tackle the SEC position will materially influence investor sentiment.

Anti-crypto rhetoric from the White House and Capitol Hill has forced crypto platforms, including Coinbase, to look beyond US borders.

On Friday, SEC Commissioner and crypto advocate Hester Peirce had this to say about Gensler’s focus on DeFi platforms,

“Rather than embracing the promise of new technology as we have done in the past, here we propose to embrace stagnation, force centralization, urge expatriation, and welcome extinction of new technology. Accordingly, I dissent.”

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.10% to $30,247. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $30,300 before falling to a low of $30,103. BTC tested the First Major Support Level (S1) at $30,122 early on.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $30,348 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $30,505 and the Saturday high of $30,575. A return to $30,500 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $30,731 and resistance at the Friday high of $30,968. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $31,114.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $30,122 in play. However, barring an event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$30,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $29,965. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $29,582.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($29,668). The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA ($29,668) would support a breakout from R1 ($30,505) to target R2 ($30,731) and $31,000. However, a fall through S1 ($30,122) would bring S2 ($29,965) and the 50-day EMA ($29,668) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.