Can Bitcoin Price Break Below $100,000 Again?

On Dec. 17, Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new record high just shy of the $108,500 mark. However, the cryptocurrency has since declined by approximately 4.80% to around $103,175 due to profit-taking by some traders, especially after its 140% year-to-date gains in 2024.

Smaller corrections do not actually mark the end of Bitcoin’s current bull cycle. In fact, the top coin can continue declining further, at least until it reaches identifiable accumulation areas to rebound and continue its rally upward.

In doing so, the Bitcoin price can drop below its $100,000 milestone level and extend the losses to the lower side of the $90,000-100,000 range. Some indicators point to this bearish scenario.

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Daily Chart Analysis — Rising Wedge Breakdown Target is Around $90,000

Bitcoin’s price is forming a rising wedge pattern, a classic bearish reversal setup confirmed when the price rises between two converging trendlines, signaling weaker momentum.

A breakdown below the wedge’s lower trendline could trigger a significant correction. The technical target for the wedge breakdown is calculated by measuring the pattern’s height and subtracting it from the breakdown point. This setup projects a downside target near $90,765, a 14% decline from current levels.

The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $91,820 aligns as the first support. Further selling pressure could push BTC toward the wedge’s full target, near the 200-day EMA at around $73,500.

On the momentum front, Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) remains elevated near 64, suggesting overbought conditions may amplify selling pressure if bears take control.

BTC/USD Weekly Chart Analysis — Gravestone Doji Eyes Broader Correction

Bitcoin’s price has formed a Gravestone Doji candlestick on the weekly chart near $104,488, signaling a potential bearish reversal. The pattern, characterized by a long upper wick and little to no body, indicates bulls pushed prices higher but failed to sustain momentum as sellers stepped in.

This development comes as BTC tests the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level near $102,000 as support. A break below it could send Bitcoin to its 20-day EMA at around $80,000, with the 50-week EMA near $66,901 serving as the next downside target.

The relative strength index (RSI) hovers around 78.83, deep in overbought territory, further supporting the likelihood of a correction.

Bitcoin NUPL Signals Growing Profit-Taking Risk

Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which measures the ratio of total investor profit relative to market cap, shows that many investors are sitting on unrealized profits.

Notably, if NUPL trends higher toward 0.7—typically seen in euphoria phases—it could signal a market top is forming. Conversely, a drop below 0.5 would indicate growing investor uncertainty and the start of a broader correction.

For instance, in 2013, 2017, and 2021, NUPL rising above 0.6-0.7 indicated growing euphoria, which followed profit-taking, leading to massive corrections. As of December 2024, the Bitcoin NUPL stands at 0.62, warranting caution among traders, especially if BTC’s price returns below the $100,000 mark.