Cardano (ADA) Faces Key Resistance as Governance Milestone Boosts Sentiment

Cardano (ADA) has recently reached a major governance milestone with the ratification of the Cardano Constitution following the Plomin hard fork. While this development strengthens the blockchain’s decentralization narrative, ADA’s price action remains at a critical juncture.

Current technical patterns indicate a possible breakout or rejection at key resistance zones, with Elliott Wave structures suggesting a pivotal move ahead. This analysis delves into ADA’s recent price behavior, potential future movement, and key levels traders should watch.

Cardano Strengthens Decentralization 

Cardano has achieved a significant milestone in its governance evolution by ratifying the Cardano Constitution, following the successful Plomin hard fork on January 29, 2025. 

This foundational document establishes clear rules, transparency, and accountability within the network’s decision-making processes. Set to be fully enacted on February 23, 2025, the Constitution empowers ADA holders to actively participate in governance directly or through Delegated Representatives (dReps). 

This development marks a pivotal shift toward decentralized, community-driven management of the Cardano blockchain.

ADA Price Analysis

ADA’s 4-hour chart illustrates a clear Elliott Wave structure, with a completed five-wave impulsive move peaking at $1.30 in December 2024, followed by an ABC correction. The corrective wave concluded at $0.53, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Since then, ADA has been attempting to recover, forming a potential symmetrical triangle pattern.

Currently, price action is hovering below 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $0.81, where a key resistance zone exists. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour timeframe is neutral at around 50, indicating indecision among traders. The price has been moving within a descending channel, and the recent formation of higher lows suggests a possible shift in trend.

However, to confirm a bullish breakout, ADA must decisively clear the $0.812 resistance, which aligns with the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle. A rejection from this level could push the price back toward support at $0.70 (0.618 Fibonacci level), or in a more bearish scenario, revisit the $0.53 low. The symmetrical triangle’s resolution will likely dictate the next major trend for ADA.

ADA Price Prediction 

Examining the 1-hour chart provides a more detailed look at ADA’s short-term wave count. The price appears to be in the final stages of a five-wave impulsive structure from its local bottom, currently completing wave (v). The RSI has started to rise but has not yet entered overbought conditions, suggesting there is still room for further upward movement.

A successful breakout above $0.812 would likely push ADA toward the next resistance at $0.929 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the broader downtrend). Beyond this level, a stronger bullish continuation could target $1.07, where the 0.236 Fibonacci level resides. This scenario aligns with Elliott Wave projections if ADA confirms a higher timeframe breakout.

However, if ADA fails to hold above $0.812 and rejects downward, a retest of $0.70 or lower ($0.53 in a bearish scenario) remains a possibility. A break below $0.696 (0.618 Fibonacci level) would invalidate the bullish scenario, signaling further downside risk.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $0.812 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement, triangle breakout level)
• Key Resistance: $0.929 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement)
• Major Resistance: $1.073 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement)
• Immediate Support: $0.70 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement)
• Critical Support: $0.53 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement, ABC correction low)
• Short-Term Target: Above $0.929 if bullish breakout occurs
• Invalidation Zone: Below $0.696, signaling further downside potential