Cardano (ADA) Price Prediction: Vasil Hard Fork Focus to Target $0.50

Key Insights:

• ADA tumbled by 7.10% on Friday, with upbeat Vasil hard fork statistics providing little support.
• Fed Chair Powell overshadowed crypto market-friendly US economic indicators, sending riskier assets deep into the red.
• Technical indicators are bearish and continue to point to sub-$0.40, with ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA.

On Friday, ADA slid by 7.10%. Reversing a 1.53% rise from Friday, ADA ended the day at $0.432.

Bullish through the early morning, ADA moved through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4733 to a mid-morning high of $0.482 before hitting reverse.

Coming up against the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4817, ADA slid to a final hour low of $0.426. The extended sell-off saw ADA fall through the day’s Major Support Levels to end the day at $0.432.

While Vasil hard fork updates have been ADA positive, Fed Chair Powell hit the appetite for cryptos early in the US session.

Powell Overshadows US Economic Indicators and Vasil Hard Fork Stats

On Friday, US economic indicators delivered further ADA price support. Softer US inflation numbers were crypto-friendly, though the upside was brief as Fed Chair Powell removed any hope of a more cautious approach to bringing inflation to target.

The Core PCE Price Index increased by 4.6% year-over-year in July, down from 4.8% in June. Personal spending increased by a modest 0.1% versus a 1.0% rise in June. Economists forecast a 0.4% increase.

The softer inflation figures did not deter Fed Chair Powell, who sent the markets a strong message of the Fed’s intent to bring inflation to target.

Fed Chair Powell delivered a warning to the markets of the Fed’s commitment to bring inflation to target. Powell talked of the likely fallout from the Fed’s goal, including the impact on labor market conditions. The Fed Chair also removed any hope of a policy reversal by highlighting the need for a period of sustained below-trend growth alongside a weaker labor market to tame inflation.

While investors responded to the US stats and Powell, the Vasil hard fork stats were ADA positive. According to PoolTool, 68% of Cardano SPO nodes have upgraded to v1.35.3, up from 62% on Friday and 53% on Thursday. 75% is the target. The rate slowed from earlier in the week, which may put increased focus on the stats over the weekend.

ADA Price Action

At the time of writing, ADA was up 0.69% to $0.435.

A mixed start to the day saw ADA fall to an early low of $0.427 before rising to a high of $0.435.

Technical Indicators

ADA will need to move through the $0.447 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.467 and the Friday high of $0.482.

ADA would need support from the broader market to break out from $0.45.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.5027. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5587.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.411 in play. However, barring another extended sell-off, ADA would likely steer clear of sub-$0.40 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.391.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.335.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.470. Today, the 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA. Following Monday’s bearish cross, the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, both ADA price negatives.

A further pullback of the 50-day EMA from the 100-day EMA would bring the Major Support Levels into play. However, an ADA move through R1 ($0.467) and the 50-day EMA ($0.470) would give the bulls a look at the 100-day EMA ($0.488).