Cardano Fractal That Preceded 250%-Plus Rallies Flashes Again

Cardano (ADA) may be on the verge of another major upside breakout if history is any indication. The ADA/USD pair is currently retesting the lower boundary of its long-standing ascending channel, a technical level that previously preceded massive 250–265% rallies.

Cardano’s Ascending Channel Pattern Suggests 250% Rally

As of this writing, ADA trades near $0.64, hovering above the lower trendline support of an ascending parallel channel that has guided the cryptocurrency’s trajectory since early 2023. This support level has acted as a reliable springboard for sharp upward reversals on at least two occasions in recent history.

The first instance occurred in August 2023 when ADA tested the same trendline and rallied nearly 250% toward $0.82.

A similar event followed between July and November 2024, when the token temporarily broke below the trendline, only to reclaim it and surge by approximately 265%, peaking just below $1.20.

The pattern of reclaiming and bouncing from this support suggests that ADA may be preparing for another bullish move, potentially toward the channel’s upper boundary.

The 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently around $0.617, is also providing immediate support.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near neutral levels (~49), suggesting that ADA has sufficient room to climb without triggering overbought signals.

That said, failure to hold the lower trendline support could invalidate the bullish fractal and open the door for deeper corrections, potentially toward the 0.382-0.236 Fib retracement range, aligning with the $0.326-0.212 area.

Cardano’s Network Metrics Are Concerning, Meanwhile

On the downside, Cardano’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) stands at $28.7 billion, but this figure appears disconnected from on-chain fundamentals, according to data resource Defi Llama.

The network’s total value locked (TVL) in DeFi is just $362.99 million, yielding an FDV/TVL ratio of nearly 79—well above healthy benchmarks in more active ecosystems like Ethereum or Solana.

Moreover, Cardano’s 24-hour DEX and perpetuals volumes barely surpass $6 million combined, while NFT trading activity and chain fees remain low at $14,714 and $7,050, respectively.

With only 21,744 active addresses in the same period, the network’s user engagement falls short of justifying such a high theoretical valuation.

ADA’s price structure may show bullish potential, but its fundamental metrics raise questions about the sustainability of its current market cap and long-term investor confidence.