Cardano Price Analysis: ADA Risks Losing Another 11% If This Bearish Pattern is Confirmed

Trading volumes have gone down by 15.5% as volatility has subsided after the FOMC meeting. ADA is currently the biggest loser in the top 10 by daily and weekly performance as the token has shed 2.9% of its value in the past 7 days as well.

Cardano Daily Transactions Drop by 60% This Year

Since the year started, the number of transactions within the Cardano network has dropped dramatically. Data from the blockchain analytics software Artemis shows that the 7-day moving average of daily transactions has declined by 60% in 2025.

Cardano has missed many of the trends that have lifted the market value of its direct rivals Ethereum and Solana. The network does not support stablecoins like USDT, USDC, or USDS (formerly known as DAI), while its top decentralized apps have a total value locked (TVL) below $100 million each.

In addition, Cardano missed the meme coin hype, which helped boost Solana’s transaction volumes and raised awareness about the network’s efficiency, cheap transaction fees, and fast execution speeds.

As a result, ADA’s dominance has been plummeting since August 2021. Back then, the ADA/BTC pair – a way to measure dominance growth – reached a peak at $0.000058. Since then, it has retreated by nearly 86% as the network has struggled to stay competitive.

Comparatively, the SOL/BTC chart shows that Solana has maintained a neutral ratio to the top crypto at $0.0015 as its DeFi ecosystem has expanded significantly since then while meme coins have found a place to live in this smart contracts platform amid the rising popularity of protocols like Pump.fun and the launch of top tokens like Official Trump (TRUMP).

Bearish Pennant Emerges in Daily Chart

The daily chart shows that ADA has taken a breather after its early March crash. Multiple headwinds coincided during this period including the Bybit hack, Trump’s misleading tweet about the potential assets that could make it to a U.S. crypto reserve, and a strong wave of negative market sentiment.

ADA found support at the $0.65 level once again as it dropped from $1 for the fourth time since November.

However, this brief period of consolidation has formed a bearish pattern known as the pennant. This setup typically indicates that the prevailing trend (a downtrend, in this case) will continue after a brief pause.

This pattern would be confirmed if the price drops below the $0.650 level – ADA’s most recent horizontal support. If that happens, we could be looking at an 11% drop to the $0.580 level.

ADA Offers Huge Upside for Short-Sellers if Negative Momentum Accelerates

Moving to the hourly chart, we can see that ADA is already on a downtrend as it has made its first lower high and seems poised to make a second one. Momentum indicators favor a bearish outlook as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the signal line while the MACD shows that negative momentum is picking up its pace again.

Short-sellers have the upper hand in this case as the stop price could be set above the $0.711 line after it was rejected multiple times during the Asian session. The risk-reward ratio for this trade is huge as ADA shows little support areas between its current level and $0.680.

If this trade realizes its maximum potential, it would result in a risk-reward ratio of nearly 4:1.