Cardano (ADA) price surges 105% as founder, Charles Hoskinson Lobbies Trump

Cardano Price Analysis: 

Cardano price hit a 5-month peak of $0.58 on Nov 10, up 105% in 7-days. Having struggled for traction in 2024 amid a flurry of lawsuits from US regulators, on-chain indicators suggest the ongoing ADA rally is being driving by retail traders betting on expectations of fairer crypto regulations under Trump’s presidency.

ADA price Gains 105% on Gary Gensler’s Resignation

Cardano price entered a major breakout over the weekend after months of underperfoming. The latest ADA rally has been particularly attributed to new developments around crypto regulations in the US.

Over the last few years, Cardano has been one of the cryptocurrencies targeted by the US SEC regime led by Gary Gensler. In July 2023, the US SEC listed Cardano as one of the assets trading illegally as a ‘security’. Since then, Cardano has struggled to gain traction especially among corporate investors who viewed ADA as a potentially troubled assets.

However, following Trump’s victory, news broke on Friday Nov 9, that the SEC chief Gary Gensler, who spearheaded the 4-year onslaught against the cryptocurrency sector would resign from his position as early as Monday Nov 11.

Unsurprisingly, embattled ADA token has received considerable demand over the last few days following news of Gensler’s resignation.

The chart above shows that ADA price traded as low as $0.32 on the Elections eve on Nov 4. But following Trump’s victory and Gensler’s purported resignation, ADA price rose to 5-month peak of $0.58 on Nov 10, reflecting a blistering 105.89% rally within the last 7-days.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson Vows to Work with Trump

On November 9, Charles Hoskinson shared in a video on social platform X vowed to work with the Trump administration to establish a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency sector.

Hoskinson says the incoming Republican administration and a likely majority in Congress are a promising opportunity to bring regulatory clarity to the crypto industry. He highlighted the potential for the new political landscape to deliver long-needed guidance for crypto businesses and users.

“I’m going to be spending quite a bit of time working with lawmakers in Washington DC to help foster and facilitate with other key leaders in the industry with the crypto policy.

“The crypto policy should be written by the American people, the American crypto industry, and well-meaning lawmakers who are willing to take the time to listen,”

Cardano founder, Charles Hoskinson, Nov 9 2024.

He added that his company — Input Output Global (IOG) — plans to set up a dedicated policy division focused on crypto regulations. This new division will work on creating a comprehensive legislative framework that incorporates key elements from the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) and the Responsible Financial Innovation Act (RFIA).

This office will actively engage with lawmakers and other stakeholders, focusing on influencing policymakers in key roles to advance the regulatory framework. Hoskinson also shared that the policy division plans to begin recruiting in early 2025.

ADA’s currently Rally mainly driven by retail traders

Cardano’s 107% rally has been attributed to Trump’s win and Gensler’s resignation. However, on-chain data trends shows that majority of the demand over the last 7-days has come from retail traders.

Indicatively, IntoTheBlock’s Average Transactions Size provides insights into the level of whale involvement around key market events. The Average transaction size rise when whales are dominant, and dips when majority of active transactions are executed by small-hold retail traders.

Cardano Average Transaction size stood at 486,900 ADA when the market rally began on Nov 4. But according to the latest data, that figure has now dipped to 319,700 ADA at the close of Nov 10.

This reflects that while ADA price rose 107% in the last 7-days, the average transaction size actually declined by 34% during that period.

When transaction sizes on a cryptocurrency network declines during a rally, its signals that the uptrend is predominantly driven by retail traders, rather than institutional players.

Typically, whales tend to drive larger transactions, which can influence the direction and sustainability of a rally. Therefore, the recent drop in the average transaction size indicates that while retail demand has been strong, larger investors have yet to enter the market in significant numbers.

If whales, or large institutional investors, start participating, Cardano’s price rally could enter another leg-up, due to the substantial capital, and improved market liquidity these large players can bring.

Cardano Price Forecast: $1 Breakout Ahead if Whales Swoop in

Cardano’s recent rally lifted ADA above the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) at $0.58, a bullish sign indicating strong buying momentum. Trading above the VWAP suggests ADA’s price is being driven by favorable demand, which could act as a support level, reinforcing the uptrend.

Also, the 34% decline in Cardano average transaction decline suggests more upside potential when the whales FOMO-in.

The RSI, at 80, signals overbought conditions, hinting at possible near-term consolidation or minor pullback. However, sustained support above the VWAP and the $0.50 level reinforces the bullish outlook, with minimal downside risks unless there’s a significant shift in market sentiment.

If ADA can decisively break the $0.68 resistance, it opens the door for a rally towards the $1 psychological level. This scenario becomes even more plausible if larger investors, like whales, begin to enter the market, driving both transaction volume and upward price momentum.

With ADA trading above the VWAP, the trend is firmly bullish, and whale involvement could be the catalyst for a surge toward $1 in the weeks to come.