Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis February 16, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Feb 13, 2015, 13:23 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil continued to rally adding 67 cents to trade at 51.88 while Brent Oil broke above the $60 level for the first time

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis February 16, 2015 - Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil continued to rally adding 67 cents to trade at 51.88 while Brent Oil broke above the $60 level for the first time in 2015. Brent oil is trading at 60.29 up by $1. After the expiration of March contract on Brent (ICE), the new front-month contract is trading around 60 today in early trading. Recent surge in oil prices could probably be to a large extent attributed to the falling US dollar. Apart from that, more positive market sentiment supported, among others, by talks on Ukraine also plays a role.

The deal announced Thursday to end the fighting in Ukraine will face the same obstacle the previous such agreement has faced: how to ensure that Russia will abide by it. Frustrated by Russia’s continued supports for Ukrainian separatists, Western statesmen have begun discussing military assistance for the Ukrainian government. But in trying to determine what would actually deter Moscow, it might be worth listening to what seems to scare Russians themselves — and it’s not military aid to Kiev.

Regarding news, Apache corp. – one of large producers of “shale oil” in the US said yesterday it would slash capital expenditures and rig count by more than one half this year due to low oil prices. Although such an impact on the capital expenditure of oil producers, and consequently on future oil production in the U.S., should not be underestimated, we think the reports released by major energy agencies released this week rather supports our opinion that the price of oil may again come under pressure in the months to come.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

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This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Imp.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD		RBA Governor Stevens
EUR		German GDP (QoQ)	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%
EUR		German GDP (YoY)	1.6%	1.0%	1.2%
EUR		GDP (YoY) (Q4)	0.9%	0.8%	0.8%
EUR		GDP (QoQ) (Q4)	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, February 16^th

Cur.	Imp.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Holiday	United States – Washington’s Birthday
	Holiday	Canada – Family Day
NZD		Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q4)		1.3%	1.5%
JPY		GDP (QoQ) (Q4)		0.9%	-0.5%
JPY		GDP (YoY) (Q4)		3.7%	-1.9%
JPY		Industrial Production			1.0%
EUR		Trade Balance (Dec)		20.5B	20.0B