Crude & Brent Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis for February 9-13, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:  

Crude Oil ended the week at 52.14 as Brent Oil followed cues to gain $1.55 to close the week at 58.13.  U.S. oil rigs continued to get decline this week despite record levels of production. Drillers idled 83 rigs, following a decline of 94 rigs in the prior week, Baker Hughes reported Friday. The total U.S. rig count is down 25 percent since October, an unprecedented four-month retreat.

The collapse in oil prices is wiping out more than 30,000 oil jobs, according to a tally of announced layoffs by Bloomberg News. Cowen & Co. estimates that spending on exploration and production are declining more than $116 billion, a 17 percent decline.

Also key to oil’s price climb Friday was a strike by U.S. refinery workers. The United Steelworkers union rejected the latest offer from U.S. refiners Thursday evening. Even though at this point, it has not impacted output at refineries in a major way, it has caused some refineries to go into early maintenance. If it goes on, it can affect other refineries.

Despite countless stories of lower earnings, strikes, layoffs and bankruptcies throughout the oil industry, a growing group of adventuresome speculators have been quietly buying crude oil as it dipped below $48 per barrel this week.

While going against the crowd that now believes petroleum prices will go down “forever,” they note a stunning drop in new oil wells and increasing demand for cheap gasoline and heating oil. Buyers are also quick to point out that many of pundits who are now predicting lower prices are the same ones who last year projected that crude could never fall below $90 per barrel.

As bulls and bears fought in the markets this week, prices swung wildly, moving as much as 10 percent during the day. By Friday, the buyers were winning as the midday price stood near $53.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest:  110.55 on Mar 01, 2012

Average: 89.06 over this period

Lowest: 62.00 in December 2014

WEEKLY

• This Week in Petroleum
  Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
• Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
  Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
• Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.