Crude Oil Forecast September 21, 2015, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude

The light sweet crude market fell during the session on Friday, in order to show continue to volatility. The market looks as if it is continuing to bounce around between the $43 level on the bottom, and the $48 level on the top. With this, the market should sooner or later offer a buying opportunity, on a supportive candle. Ultimately, this market ended up forming a shooting star for the weekly candle, and as a result it’s very likely that we will continue to see sellers step back into this market. However, we are not comfortable selling until we get below the $43 level. If we get a supportive candle between here and there, we are buyers as the support has been so tenacious lately, leading us to believe that although the sellers are very much in the fight, we could possibly be looking for some type of trend change to happen.

Brent

The Brent markets of course fell as well, testing the $48 level. The $47 level below is the bottom of the support, so if we break down below there we would be sellers. On the other hand, a time of supportive candle in this general vicinity has us buying as the market should then head back to the $50 level in the short-term. The longer-term charts of course still look very bearish, but it does appear that we are starting to try to turn the trend around. This takes quite a bit of momentum and effort, and needless to say is not something that typically happens overnight. With this, we do not hesitate to buy this market on a supportive candle near the $47 level but recognize that we will probably need a daily close that offers that in order to actually make that trade.

Below the $47 level, we would more than likely see this market head down to the $44 level given enough time. With this, we would be able to sell the Brent market short-term, but would have to be very quick to take profits as we will continue to see a lot of back and forth action.