The crude oil markets fell initially during the trading session on Wednesday, as it looks like we are trying to do everything we can to find a floor.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has shown quite a bit of noisy behavior, and at this point it looks like the $69 level is trying to be a little bit of a support level, and an area that will more likely than not continue to be a scenario where we are simply trying to find our footing. That being said, we can drop all the way down to the $65 level before finding longer-term support, so I don’t necessarily look at this as anything other than a little bit of short covering.
Granted, we could rally from here, but my thought is that if you are suddenly going to see a trend change, there will be plenty of time to join that trend. This is especially true considering that we are heading into the holiday season when volatility could pick up, and volume will almost certainly drop. Ultimately, I would not necessarily be a seller of crude oil either, but once we get a longer-term signal, I might be willing to buy based on value.
Brent markets of course look the same, with the exception that the major floor is probably the $70 level. All things being equal, I think this is a situation where you are trying to find some type of floor, but we are not there yet and even if we were, you should have plenty of time to get involved. I would not be a seller down here, because you would be chasing the trade. I think at this point, it’s more or less going to be a “wait and see” type of market, and therefore there may not be a lot to do for the next several sessions.
Furthermore, central banks around the world have meetings over the next 24 hours that could cause issues, as volatility and of course liquidity could be a major issue. With that being said, I think you get a situation where we are in a bit of an accumulation phase with crude oil, but that accumulation phase could last weeks, possibly even months, you just don’t know.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.