Crude oil markets have fallen pretty significantly during the trading session on Monday again, but then turned around to show signs of life again.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen during the Monday session again, but it looks as if there are buyers underneath that could come into the picture, and therefore we could get a short-term bounce. I think at this point it makes a certain amount of sense, because a bear market bounce makes sense due to the fact that we had broken down. The $65 level has offered support, and therefore we could go looking to the $70 level initially, perhaps even higher than that, perhaps reaching towards the $75 level.
Nonetheless, keep in mind that the Wednesday session is going to be very important, as we have the Federal Reserve meeting that a lot of people will be paying close attention to. After all, if the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, that could have people looking at a slower economy, and therefore less demand for oil. Either way, we are in a bearish market, and I’m looking for signs of exhaustion after a bounce to start selling again.
Brent markets have fallen during the trading session on Monday as there are a lot of concerns around the world about demand. After all, if the market is going to have to deal with slowing economies, it makes quite a bit of sense that crude oil would be in less demand. The Brent markets of course will be very noisy, due to the fact that the demand in places like Europe and Asia is going to be somewhat of a moving target as well.
The $77.50 level above was previous support, so it should be significant resistance.” Market memory” should continue to be a major issue, therefore I think you get a situation where signs of exhaustion in that area could be a nice shorting opportunity. Conversely, if we break down below the $70 level, we would be breaking the bottom of this hammer shaped candlestick that we are trying to form, opening up a potentially negative move that could send this market down to the $65 level. Regardless of what you do, keep your position size reasonable due to the fact that this market will be extraordinarily volatile.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.