The crude oil market pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, but still sees plenty of support just below that a lot of people will be paying close attention to as we continue to drift aimlessly in a large consolidation area.
The crude oil market in the WTI grade fell early during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. That being said, I still believe that we are in a major consolidation area and that, of course, is going to be what drives price in more than anything else. In fact, I anticipate that this dip will probably get bought yet again, and I would not be concerned about the overall oil market until we break down below $68 at the very least, and you can even make an argument there’s support all the way down to $65. With that being said you also have to keep in mind that there are a lot of different things moving the market at the same time.
The Brent market very much the same we continue to bounce around and looked a little soft during the early hours on Wednesday, but much like the WTI grade, it is between the highs and the lows of what I think is going to be an obvious consolidation range, with $72 being the support level and the $80.50 level above being the resistance barrier. The markets are being moved by attacks in the Red Sea but they’re also being moved by the fact that there is an oversupply of oil, so you have things counterbalancing each other.
There are concerns about recession, which will bring down demand, but at the same time OPEC is making it clear that they are willing to cut production in order to keep markets supported. I think once it’s all said and done, we just stay in this range for a while. It might end up being what is known as an accumulation phase from a longer term standpoint, but in the short term, I have been buying small dips with small positions. Certainly, you don’t want to get overexposed to the oil market right now because there is no clear directionality other than choppiness. And as a result, you can take advantage of the fact that we are so cheap, but you don’t want to get overexposed because the bottom could eventually fall out.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.