Crude oil markets have fallen a bit during the trading session on Monday, to show signs of weakness starting up the week.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen pretty significantly during the day, as it looks like we are heading toward the $82 level. All things being equal, the market will eventually find buyers underneath to show signs of life. At this point, the market is likely to turn around and rally toward the $85 level, but we may have gotten a little bit overextended. The 200-Day EMA sits below near the $70.50 level, so it is possible that we could see that as a bit of a floor, and for what it is worth, the “golden cross”, where the 50-Day EMA breaks above the 200-Day EMA is about to happen, which is a longer term “buy-and-hold signal.”
Regardless, I think you need to pay close attention to the momentum, but clearly, we had gotten a little ahead of ourselves, so this pullback is probably going to be a bit of a necessity, and could very well turn things around quite nicely.
Brent markets have fallen a bit during the trading session as well, as it looks like we are threatening to reach toward $85 level. Either way, the market also has the 200-Day EMA underneath offering significant support, so I do like the idea of buying on dips, but I do recognize that this is a market that has been very overextended, so I think this offers a little bit of a buying opportunity. To the upside, the market is likely to continue to see a move toward the $90 level.
In general, this is a market that continues to look at the possibility of a move to the upside due to the fact that the members of OPEC continue to cut back on production, and therefore bring down supply. Whether or not this can continue to send markets higher remains to be seen, but at this point it looks like it certainly is a major factor that is going to continue to be bullish for crude oil. If the US dollar starts to fall as well, that will also be very strong for crude oil as it is of course priced in those dollars.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.