Crude oil markets have fallen rather hard during the day on Tuesday, although it’s probably worth noting that we have seen quite a bit of upward pressure recently.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen rather hard to kick off the trading session on Tuesday, but it does look like we are still very bullish over the last couple of months. The question at this point is whether or not we can continue to climb above the $83.50 level, because if we can break above there, then the market is likely to go much higher, something that I think still is very possible.
At this point, the 200-Day EMA is currently hanging around the $77.75 level, and therefore I think offers a bit of a support level underneath. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy, as traders are starting to wonder whether or not they are going to continue to be a “buy on the dip” type of market, as OPEC continues to cut production, or if they are going to worry about the market slowing down. During the Tuesday session, a lot of this may have been due US dollar strengthening. I don’t think this is a major shift in oil though.
Brent has also fallen during the day, sitting closer to the 200-Day EMA. We have seen a couple of nasty candlesticks as of late, but so far, the buyers have been jumping into the market to pick it up. The $87.50 level above is a significant resistance barrier, and I do think that it’s going to take some serious effort to break above there. If we were to break above the $87.50 level, then it allows the market to go looking into the $90 level. If we were to break down below the 200-Day EMA, then it’s possible that we could go down to the 50-Day EMA, which is closer to the $80 level.
Just like the WTI grade, I think that this has a lot more to do with the US dollar than anything else during the day on Tuesday, and I do think at this point we are more or less consolidating in order to try to break to the upside. Whether or not that actually happens, well that remains to be seen.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.