Crude oil markets have broken through a major resistance barrier this week, and therefore it looks like we are ready to continue the recovery of what had been an oversold market.
Crude oil initially pulled back just a bit in the West Texas Intermediate grade on Friday, but it looks like we are trying to turn around and show signs of life again. The 200 day EMA sits just above but after the massive breakout that we’d seen on Thursday, I think we do get some follow through at this point. Underneath the $75 level, I believe, is the short term floor in the market if you will and the 50-day EMA hanging around that area also offers a lot of support. If we were to break down below the 50-day EMA then you can make an argument that we are about to get negative, but we have been consolidating for so long that it does make a lot of sense that we see the market finally break out and reach to the upside. Clearing the 200-day EMA opens up the possibility of a move to the $80 level.
Brent markets also look as if they are trying to pressure the upside again early in the session and therefore if we can break the 200 day EMA, we could go to the $85 level. Underneath the $80.50 level was the previous resistance that should now be support and we also have the 50 day EMA coming into the picture just below there as well that could offer support also.
This is a market that much like WTI grade had shown a proclivity to try to break out and now that we are getting out of the accumulation phase, it’ll be interesting to see what happens next. Central banks around the world continue to loosen monetary policy, and I think that’s what most people are paying the most attention to. And if that is going to be the case, it should drive up demand for energy in the long term. Right now, I expect to see a lot of volatility, but I still see a buy on the dip type of mentality out there and that’s exactly how I’m going to approach this market. I have no interest in shorting Brent or WTI anytime soon.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.