Crude oil markets have been relatively noisy during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to try to find some type of bottom.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen during the day on Monday to reach the lows that we had made previously. At this point, it looks like the market is trying to get down to the $80 level, which I think is a huge psychological and structural barrier. After all, the Americans have suggested that they are going to try to buy oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve near that price, and of course, OPEC has made it clear that they think anything under $80 isn’t realistic. With that being said, a breakdown below the $80 level could open up a new flood of selling. In the short term, I think we are settling in a range between $80 on the bottom and $90 on the top.
Brent has pierced the $90 level during the trading session on Monday but turned around to show signs of life. I think this is an area where we are going to see a lot of support, so I’m not surprised at all to see this market try to bounce. If we do rally a bit to the upside, I think it will only end up in the market trying to form some type of short-term range, much like the WTI market. Pay attention to the Federal Reserve, because if they are extraordinarily hawkish on Wednesday, that could be felt over here in the oil market. On the other hand, if they seem like they are backing off a little bit, it’s possible that we could see oil rally based upon that alone. Either way, I think the play in the short term is going to be range bound.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.