The crude oil markets were of course somewhat illiquid as we continue to see a bit of an overstretched condition. That being said, the market is likely to take profits in this area. Labor Day of course is part of the reason why we have so much uncertainty.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen a bit after initially gapping higher on Monday, but keep in mind it was Labor Day in the United States, and that of course has a major influence on where we are in the markets, and of course you also have to pay close attention to the idea that we are overbought. At this point, if you are already long in this market, then it’s likely to be a situation where you need to think about taking profit, or lease bringing some of your position size down.
Even if we were to go higher from here, we have come so far in such a short term that the market needs to pull back. If we break above the $87 level, then the market could go much higher. However, this is a situation where I do think we eventually go higher and that pullbacks will make for value propositions along the way.
Brent markets have also struggled a bit, and therefore it looks like we are trying to do everything we can to figure out what is going to happen next. I think a pullback makes sense here as well, as it is a scenario where value hunters will come back into the picture, and try to pick up “cheap oil.” Keep in mind that OPEC is currently cutting production, and I think that hangs heavy over the market, driving prices higher.
Furthermore, the Americans will have to step into the market and try to pick up oil to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, so that provides even more upward pressure. At this point, I have no interest in shorting this market, and it is worth noting that the 50-Day EMA is currently breaking above the 200-Day EMA, kicking off the so-called “death cross” that a lot of people pay close attention to from a longer-term standpoint as well. Also of interest is the bullish flag that we are now broken well above.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.