Crude oil markets have slowed down during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil markets have gapped higher during the trading session on Monday, but then pulled back just a bit to show signs of exhaustion. We are sitting right around the 200-Day EMA, and therefore it is not a huge surprise to see that there is a little bit of hesitation. Ultimately, this is a market that probably needs to pull back, perhaps reaching towards the $90 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.
If we do break down below the $90 level, then we will test the 50-Day EMA just below. On the other hand, if we do break above the $95 level, then it’s likely that we will have a significant shot higher, perhaps reaching the $100 level.
Brent markets have done the same, as they are sitting well above the 200-Day EMA, and I think at this point in time it’s very likely that we will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. Keep in mind that there is a huge fight right now between the demand structure, as the global economy is slowing down, but at the same time OPEC just cut 2 million barrels per day. In other words, we should have a significant “push pull” type of scenario where there is nothing but volatility.
If we were determined to break down below the $90 level, that would be the end of any shot higher, but right now I think at this point it’s very likely we will continue to see more support than anything else in the short term. Now that the market has been so noisy, I suspect that we have a situation where we are overdone, but it certainly looks as if the oil is trying to recover fully.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.