Crude oil markets have drifted a little bit lower during the early hours on Monday, but have also seen buyers jumping back in and trying to support the market.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has shown itself to be slightly negative at the open on Monday, but has found buyers underneath to continue to try to push this market toward the $75 level. Whether or not we can break above there remains to be seen, but it is very likely that we will at least attempt to do so.
Keep in mind that the $75 level had been significant resistance previously, so therefore I think it makes a certain amount of sense that it continues to be. However, if we break above there on a daily close it would be a psychological victory for crude oil traders, and may send this market higher. Until then, the market still will have to prove itself. Pullbacks at this point will more likely than not find support near the 50-Day EMA, and then the $70 level.
Brent markets have also pulled back just a bit during the trading session, only to turn around and show signs of support. At this point, the market continues to see the $80 level as a major barrier, and if we can break above there I think it will bring more volume into the market and could send this contract to go looking to the 200-Day EMA above. That of course is an indicator that a lot of people will be paying attention to, so if we did break above there, it would obviously be a major event.
On the downside, we have the 50-Day EMA offering support just above the $76 level, and then of course the psychologically important $75 level. All things being equal, I think this is a market that is trying to break out but there’s obviously a lot of work to do. With that being the case, and the fact that OPEC seems hell-bent on cutting production as much as they can, eventually the supply and demand issues will come to the forefront, and we may see a breakout. However, we are still technically in the summer range, and are just approaching the top of it so caution is probably warranted at this point.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.