Crude Oil Price Forecast: Struggles Below Key Levels in Bearish Downtrend

Crude oil remained under pressure on Tuesday as it fell a little below yesterday’s low of 68.18, to a new pullback low of 68.00. It looks like crude will end the day in a bearish position, either closing below Monday’s low or at least in the lower quarter of the day’s trading range. Crude oil remains in a developing consolidation pattern following the breakdown from a large symmetrical triangle pattern in early-September. And it remains below resistance at the lower boundary line of the pattern.

Consolidation Range Lowers Volatility

This means that until it breaks out of the range and stays out of it, crude will continue to consolidate. Support around 67.11, from a downswing on October 1, can be used as the lower end of the price range as a break below it is bearish. On the upside, the 73.26 swing high from last week provides an obvious resistance boundary. A breakout in either direction should see a clear pickup in momentum to stay valid.

Upside Breakout Above 79.09

A rise through the top of the range leads to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 74.60. Slightly higher will be the bottom side of the triangle and potential resistance. Considering price structure, the recent swing high of 79.09 will need to be exceeded to identify a potential change in direction for crude oil. On the downside, a decline below 67.11 signals a likely retest of the September low of 65.65, and possibly lower prices from there.

That low is from October and a drop below it is a bearish monthly indication. Keep in mind that a drop below 65.65 signals a bearish continuation of the decline that began on the triangle breakdown. The October swing high provided a new lower swing high that also shows further downward pressure on the price of crude oil. An internal downtrend line reflects the shift.

Remains in Long-term Downtrend

Crude oil has been progressing in a downtrend since the 95.50 peak in September 2023. The recent low in September and the swing high in October show a continuation of the bear trend. Therefore, a decline below the low in September at 65.65, will trigger a bearish trend continuation signal. That pattern progression will be in concert with the bearish breakdown of the symmetrical triangle.

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