In the early hours of Tuesday, a pattern seems to be returning to the oil market, as traders are simply passing the ball back and forth at this point. The market is one that is rangebound and will probably continue to be for a while.
The West Texas Intermediate crude oil market pulled back a bit during the early hours on Tuesday as it looks like we got to the top of the short-term range. I do believe that eventually oil has a shot higher, but right now being the end of the year, it’s difficult to imagine a lot of people are getting excited by the prospect of gambling a bunch of money in a very volatile, choppy market.
Because of this, I anticipate that we will continue to stay within the same overall sideways action, with the $67 level offering support and the $72 50 cents level above offering resistance. We’re basically in the middle, so there isn’t a whole lot to do. Once we break out of this range though, then we can begin to put more money to work or perhaps after the holidays because it is the 18th that we’re going into and therefore unless something external happens, the market itself, is probably just settling down.
You can say the same thing about the Brent market as it is falling again during the trading session. Although the Brent market could in theory be forming a descending triangle. So that’s something to watch. The $70 level underneath should continue to be rather supportive. Any breakdown below there could open up a move to the $67.50 level and then the $65 level. In that environment, things could get rather ugly for crude oil.
That being said though, it looks like inflation is probably going to accelerate a bit in the United States, and I do think eventually that drags oil up with it. Furthermore, you have geopolitical issues in the Middle East that are still a mess. So there’s always that possibility as well.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.