The crude oil markets continue to defend the same level that they have for the past three years, as the market has been rangebound for what seems like a lifetime.
The light sweet crude oil market has rallied slightly in the early hours on Friday as it looks like we are hanging around to show signs of resiliency here in a three-year support level. Market participants are probably just simply either covering their shorts or trying to play a short-term bounce, but this is a technical bounce. Nothing has fundamentally changed, and we are still looking at the very real possibility of a recession.
That, of course, will bring in less demand for crude oil, so pay close attention to that. On a bounce, we could go all the way to the $70 level and while it would be a good short-term trade, it really wouldn’t change much. Again, if we break down below the Wednesday candlestick, that could open the trap door to $65, maybe even lower.
The Brent market looks very much the same as it is defending the $70 level. And this is also where it has been supported for roughly three years. A bounce here could go all the way to the $74 level at this rate. A breakdown below the Wednesday candlestick would, of course, be very negative as it could send Brent looking for $67.50.
And I do think it’s the same scenario here. We’re just looking to take advantage of cheap oil. It’s a quick term, short term, quick trade, if you will. And as a result, I think traders are looking to just play the bounce, probably not hang on to the position. Quite frankly, we would need to see the fundamentals change completely.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.