The crude oil market continues to see a range play out, as the Monday session has shown itself to be negative. However, we are very much in a well-defined range, and this is something that should be paid close attention to.
The West Texas Intermediate crude oil market was slightly negative in the early hours on Monday. As we continue to hang about the 50-day EMA, the 50-day EMA of course is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to and I do believe that between here and the $72.50 level we probably see a lot of noisy behavior. Market participants will continue to look at that as a difficult barrier to get above as it looks like the stochastic oscillator is starting to roll over a little bit and perhaps suggesting that we are just simply going sideways trying to build up some type of base still.
The Brent market turned around quite negatively during the trading session on Monday as we are now trying to break down below the 50 day EMA and we are below the $75 level. In general, this is a market that I think continues to go sideways overall as the demand questions still linger for crude oil and of course, we have to ask questions of what’s going to happen with the global economy. Beyond that, the Trump administration coming into the United States will almost certainly increase oil production.
So, it all comes down to whether or not the supply will overwhelm the demand. The $70 level underneath should be a major support level, and it is worth noting that it was at the bottom of the two year range. So, with that being said, I think the downside is somewhat limited, but you could probably say that about the upside as well.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.