Crude Oil Price Update – Breakout Over $54.20 Could Trigger Surge into $55.31; EIA Report on Tap

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading higher on Thursday as traders await this week’s government storage report due to be released at 16:00 GMT. The catalysts behind today’s early strength are China’s efforts to boost its economy, a drop in new coronavirus cases at the epicenter of the outbreak and supply concerns in Venezuela and Libya.

At 15:28 GMT, April WTI crude oil futures are trading $54.28, up $0.79 or +1.48%.

Late Wednesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a greater-than-expected 4.16 million barrel rise in inventories for the week-ending February 14. Traders were looking for a 2.5 million barrel build. Traders should little reaction to the news.

Today, investors are looking for a 3.3 million barrel build. A higher than expected number may have no effect on prices, however, a smaller than expected build could drive prices sharply higher.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the next swing top at $54.39 will reaffirm the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through $49.63 and $49.50.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $51.15 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The short-term range is $54.39 to $49.50. Its retracement zone at $52.52 to $51.95 is support.

The intermediate range is $58.90 to $49.50. Its retracement zone at $54.20 to $55.31 is currently being tested. We could see some counter-trend selling on the first test of this area. However, taking out $55.31 could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the April WTI crude oil market the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $54.20.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $54.20 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a surge into the Fibonacci level at $55.31. This price is also the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with $57.25 the near-term target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $54.20 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is an uptrending Gann angle at $53.13. This is followed by the short-term retracement zone at $52.52 to $51.95.