Crude Oil Price Update – Sustained Move Under $50.30 Puts Bears in Control

November West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices are under pressure due to a stronger U.S. Dollar and concerns over increasing U.S. production. Traders are also paring positions ahead of Friday’s OPEC and non-OPEC meeting to discuss extending the deal to cut production or deepen production cuts.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $51.11 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. This could lead to an eventual test of the May 25 main top at $52.62.

The major retracement zone remains $50.30 to $48.87. This zone is controlling the direction of the market, particularly the Fibonacci level at $50.30.

Daily Forecast

Based on the current price at $50.16 and the earlier price action, the direction of the crude oil market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fib level at $50.30.

A sustained move over $50.30 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create enough upside momentum to challenge this week’s high at $51.11, followed by the long-term downtrending angle at $51.42.

The angle at $51.42 is the trigger point for an acceleration into the main top at $52.62.

A sustained move under $50.30 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is the uptrending angle at $49.64. Look for a technical bounce on the first test of this angle.

If $49.64 fails as support then look for a possible acceleration into the next major target at $48.87.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at $50.30. Trader reaction to this price will tell us if the bulls are still in control, or if the bears are taking over.