The crude oil markets that I follow continue to show a lot of choppiness, and therefore it doesn’t necessarily look like we are ready to go anywhere.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market fell a bit during the week, but we are sitting just above the 200-Week EMA, and of course the $72 level where we have seen a lot of noise in the past. Ultimately, this is a situation where it is probably only a matter of time before we have to challenge this area. That being said, it’s difficult to get overly aggressive as the range has been so reliable. In other words, longer-term traders are going to be frustrated, but it does set up a couple of clear signals as to when you should be buying or selling.
We can break above the $82.50 level, then it’s likely that this market will go higher, perhaps reaching the $90 level. However, if we turn around and breakdown below the $72 level, the $70 level will be targeted initially, and anything below there gets things looking ugly rather quickly.
The Brent market has gone back and forth during the course of the trading week as well, drifting slightly lower. We are essentially stuck between the 50-Week EMA, which sits just below the $90 level, and the 200-Day EMA which sits right around the $77.50 level. I just don’t see where this market has any momentum right now, so I think longer-term traders will continue to be very neutral. In fact, it’s probably a better bet to trade this market from a range bound perspective, perhaps on a daily chart or even an hourly chart if you have the opportunity to do so. Once we break out of these ranges though, I think it opens up the possibility of a $10 move in either direction.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.