Crude oil markets have fallen again during the course of the trading week, as we continue to look for some type of support.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially tried to rally during the week but continues to see a lot of negativity. At this point, we are testing the 200-Week EMA, an indicator that a lot of people will pay close attention to from the longer-term standpoint. We are also right around the $75 region, so if we turn around and take that out, we could see a bit of recovery. This has been a massive drop over the last month, so at the very least I think you probably see some type of recovery or at least return to the mean.
On the other hand, if the market were to break down below the weekly candlestick, we could drop down to the $70 level, but at this point in time I think this is a situation where the market will continue to be very noisy, so you have to be very cautious.
Brent markets also have gotten hammered, but at this point in time it’s likely that we continue to see a bit of short covering, as we have dipped below the 200-Week EMA. If we can recapture the $80 level, then the market can continue to go looking to the $85 level, as crude oil is pricing in something rather nasty recession, but at the same time, the market is so overextended that I think it is probably only a matter of time before traders try to find some value. Furthermore, OPEC is probably going to start cutting if this keeps up, as they cannot afford oil dropping the way it has been. Expect more volatility, not less.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.