Crude oil markets initially plunged during the course of the week, only to turn around and show signs of life again. Ultimately, it looks as if we are trying to find some type of bottom for a bigger move.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially plunged during the course of the week, but has found support near the $67.50 level yet again. All things being equal, the market has found enough buyers here over the last 3 weeks in a row to show signs of life, and it’s likely that we will continue to find support in that general vicinity. The $65 level seems to be the “bottom of the market”, and therefore if we were to break down through there, this market could plunge.
On the other hand, if we were to turn on a break above the $75 level, it opens up a huge move higher, perhaps toward the $80 level. The $80 level course will be the target, over the longer term. I think we are trying to form some type of basing pattern, as we are trading in what could be thought of as the “summer range.”
Brent has also fallen significantly during the trading week, only to turn around and find support at the $71.50 level yet again, as it is the same place we have bounced from previously. The $70 level underneath is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and what I think is the bottom of the market. On the other hand, if we turn around a break above the 200-Week EMA, or perhaps even the $80 level, then it opens up a huge move higher, perhaps sending Brent all the way up to the 50-Week EMA, which is currently at the $83.50 level.
All things being equal, I think we have a summer range going on right now that opens up the possibility of a sideways action more than anything else. Ultimately, if we break down below the $70 level it would be very negative, but I don’t see that happening in the short-term, and it certainly has shown itself to be rather resilient in that area overall. Ultimately, it’s more or less going to be a short-term trading type of environment.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.