Dax Index News: Eurozone GDP and Labor Data Loom – DAX Near Key Support Levels

DAX Drops Below 19,000 Amid Ongoing US Tariff Fears

On Wednesday, November 13, the DAX slipped by 0.16%, following a 2.13% loss from the previous session, closing at 19,003. This drop marks the first time since October 8 that the DAX has fallen below 19,000.

Investor concerns about US tariffs and potential impact on trade continued to pull the DAX lower.

Major Stock Movers: Auto, Bank, and Tech Stocks Slide

The auto sector faced increasing selling pressure on Wednesday, with US tariffs likely to target German car manufacturers. Porsche slid by 6.17%, while Volkswagen posted a 2.45% loss. BMW and Mercedes Benz Group also closed in negative territory.

Expectations for deregulation on US banks also continued to affect demand for German bank stocks. Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank saw declines of 1.45% and 0.44%, respectively.

However, Siemens Energy AG surged 18.95% after raising its mid-term outlook. RWE AG also limited the downside for the DAX, rallying 6.14% after announcing plans to buy back shares.

Eurozone GDP and Labor Market in Focus

On Thursday, November 14, the second estimate of Eurozone GDP numbers and labor market data will require consideration. The first estimate showed the Eurozone economy expanded by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, up from 0.2% in Q2 2024.

Downward revisions to the GDP figures could raise investor bets on a 50-basis point December ECB rate cut. While a more dovish ECB rate path may boost demand for DAX-listed stocks, concerns about tariffs will likely remain a headwind.

Furthermore, economists expect Eurozone employment to increase by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, mirroring the second quarter’s increase. A weaker-than-expected rise in employment may further support bets on a 50-basis point ECB rate cut. The Euro Area labor market remains a focal point for the ECB, with private consumption influencing inflation and the economy.

US CPI Report Boosts Fed Rate Cut Expectations

On Wednesday, the US CPI Report increased expectations of a 25-basis point December Fed rate cut. The core inflation rate remained at 3.3%, while the annual inflation rate rose from 2.4% in September to 2.6% in October. The numbers aligned with consensus, easing fears of a pickup in inflationary pressures while supporting a Fed rate cut.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point December Fed rate cut increased from 58.7% on November 12 to 83.0% on November 13.

US Equity Markets Mixed After US CPI Report

The US equity markets had a mixed Wednesday session. The Dow and the S&P 500 gained 0.11% and 0.2%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.26%.

Rising expectations for a December Fed rate cut drove demand for Dow and S&P 500-listed stocks while limiting the Nasdaq’s losses.

US Producer Prices and Labor Market in Focus

On Thursday, US producer prices and labor market data may further influence the Fed rate path.

Economists expect producer prices to increase by 2.3% year-on-year in October, up from 1.8% in September. Hotter-than-expected producer prices could signal rising inflation, potentially reducing bets on a December Fed rate cut.

Labor market data remains a focal point for the Fed navigating a soft US economic landing. Economists predict initial jobless claims to rise slightly from 221k (week ending November 2) to 223k (week ending November 9). However, a modest increase would likely shift focus to producer prices regarding Fed rate cut bets.

Near-Term Outlook

In the near term, DAX trends will depend on sentiment toward US tariffs, central bank commentary, and economic indicators. Tariff fears and higher-than-expected US producer prices may dampen demand for DAX-listed stocks, potentially pulling the DAX toward 18,750.

As of Thursday morning, futures signaled a mixed opening. DAX futures advanced by 10 points, while the Nasdaq mini futures were down 12 points.

Investors should track the US economic indicators, Trump-related news, and central bank forward guidance to manage risks effectively.

DAX Technical Indicators

Daily Chart

The DAX remains below the 50-day EMA but is holding above the 200-day EMA following Wednesday’s loss. The EMAs affirmed bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

A DAX breakout from the 50-day EMA could allow the bulls to target 19,350. Furthermore, a break above 19,350 could bring the 19,500 level into play.

Euro area and US economic indicators and central bank comments require consideration.

Conversely, a DAX drop below Wednesday’s 18,839 low could signal a fall to 18,750. A break below 18,750 may give the bears a run at 18,500.

With the 14-day RSI at 44.45, the DAX could break below 18,750 before entering oversold territory.