Dax Index News: Forecast Hinges on Lagarde’s Comments, Rate Cuts in Sharp Focus

DAX Opens Higher as Market Eyes ECB Decision

Germany’s DAX rose 0.57% to 21,433 at the opening bell on Thursday, April 17, on hopes of a dovish ECB monetary policy stance. German producer prices fell 0.2% year-on-year in March after rising 0.7% in February and sharply missing the consensus forecast of a 0.4% rise. The decline reflects weakening demand, with producers likely passing cost savings to consumers, potentially easing inflationary pressures.

Sector Performance: Siemens Energy and Autos Advance

Hopes of President Trump pausing auto tariffs bolstered demand for auto stocks. Daimler Truck Holding gained 0.85%, while Porsche and Volkswagen trended higher.

However, Siemens Energy led the charge, soaring 11.88% after posting strong Q2 earnings.

ECB Takes Center Stage Amid Tariff Uncertainty

All eyes are on the ECB’s April 17 policy decision and press conference, crucial for near-term DAX trends. Economists expect the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.4%. Barring surprises, the focus will be on ECB President Lagarde’s press conference.

Investors should take into account her views on the effects of tariffs on the Eurozone economy, inflation, and monetary policy. A dovish tone could support demand for German equities, while cautious remarks may weigh on investor sentiment.

Will the ECB President Signal Aggressive Policy Action?

Speculation is mounting that the ECB may signal multiple rate cuts to counter economic headwinds. However, analysts note the bloc’s trade dynamics depend heavily on Germany and anticipated fiscal stimulus. Daniel Kral, Europe macro specialist at Oxford Economics, commented:

“EU countries tend to export much more to Germany than to the 🇺🇸 (apart from Ireland). So the impact of lost trade with 🇺🇸 could be offset by German fiscal stimulus (subject to implementation risks). Exports to rest of the world will be weighed by lower global demand and more competition from China.”

US Markets Slide on Growth, Inflation Fears

US equity markets fell sharply on Wednesday, April 16, after Fed Chair Powell warned that tariffs could dampen growth and fuel inflation. The Nasdaq Composite Index plunged 3.07%, while the Dow and the S&P 500 dropped 1.73% and 2.24%, respectively.

Tech shares led the losses, with Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) sliding 6.87% and 7.35%, respectively, following export curbs on chips to China. President Trump’s announcement of further tariffs added to market pressure.

US economic indicators failed to boost sentiment despite retail sales rising 1.4% in March after an increase of 0.2% in February.

US Jobless Claims in Focus

In the US session, labor market data will draw interest. Economists expect jobless claims to rise from 223k (week ending April 5) to 225k (week ending April 12). A print above 250k could fuel recession fears, impacting risk assets. However, a drop below 220k would suggest a resilient labor market.

Alongside the data, investors must continue to monitor trade developments and Fed guidance. While tariff threats weigh on risk sentiment, dovish Fed signals may help cushion downside risks.

Near-Term Outlook

The DAX’s trajectory will depend on trade dynamics and central bank forward guidance:

• Bearish Scenario: Rising US-EU trade tensions and hawkish ECB forward guidance could push the DAX below 21,000.
• Bullish Scenario: Easing US-EU trade tensions and ECB signals supporting multiple rate cuts could drive the DAX toward 22,000.

DAX Technical Indicators

Daily Chart

The DAX held above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) after the positive open. However, the Index traded below the 50-day EMA— a bearish price signal.

A break above 21,500 could clear the path to the 50-day EMA, bringing 22,000 into focus.

On the downside, a fall through 21,000 may trigger a drop toward 20,500. A break below 20,500 and the 200-day EMA could enable the bears to target the 19,675 support level.

Final Thoughts

The DAX remains sensitive to trade developments and central bank commentary. Traders should closely monitor macroeconomic indicators, central bank guidance, and technical price trends here.

Stay tuned as ECB signals and Fed commentary continue to influence the market outlook.