Dax Index News: Market Opens Higher as US Futures Provide Pre-Market Support

DAX Opens Higher as US Futures Provide Pre-Market Support

Market tensions eased following Monday’s European and US sell-offs. While tariff and recession fears linger, a pickup in the Eurozone’s economic momentum could offer support. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 futures reversed a 400-point deficit overnight, providing market relief.

The DAX Index opened higher on Tuesday, March 11, rising 0.26% to 23,680.

Sector Performance: Auto Extend Gains as Tech Stocks Recover

Auto stocks extended their gains from Monday after Trump exempted certain automakers from tariffs targeting Canada and Mexico. Tech stocks rebounded after Monday’s rout, contributing to the morning gains.

• Volkswagen opened 3.4% higher, with BMW, Mercedes-Benz Group, and Porsche advancing early in the session.
• Infineon Technologies advanced by 0.52%.

German Fiscal Policy in Focus

Following last week’s ECB rate cut and a downward revision to 2025 growth forecasts, the focus returns to Germany’s fiscal policy. Germany’s coalition government wants to establish a military force to deter threats and revive the ailing economy. Updates on securing broader political support for the fiscal package will be crucial.

Mario Cavaggioni, portfolio manager at HY Market, outlined the timelines for the Bundestag to debate and vote on the planned financial package:

• Debate the planned financial package: March 13 and 18.
• Potentially vote on the package: March 18.
• Vote on the two special funds: March 21.

Progress on approving the infrastructure fund, the debt brake reforms, and fiscal rules could boost demand for stocks in key sectors. These include:

• Construction.
• Defense.
• Energy.
• Telecommunications, IT, and tech.

However, Oxford Economics outlined potential risks, including:

• Germany’s coalition government has yet to secure backing from other parties.
• Debt brake reforms may be less aggressive than anticipated.
• The economy may struggle to absorb all funds and scale up defense and infrastructure capacity.
• Delays, rising inflation, and ECB monetary policy moves could impact sentiment.

US Markets Recap: Tariffs Fuel Flight to Safety

On Monday, March 10, US equity markets plunged as Trump’s shifting tariff policies heightened recession jitters. Kalshi raised the odds of a US recession in 2025 to 40%, up from 17% in January. President Trump spooked markets on March 9 by not ruling out a tariff-induced recession.

The tech sector bore the brunt of the market sell-off, with the Nasdaq Composite Index plunging 4%, while the Dow and the S&P 500 slid 2.08% and 2.70%, respectively.

In the bond markets, 10-year US Treasury yields dropped to 4.2% before closing the session at 4.219%, reflecting market caution over Trump’s priorities on tariffs.

US JOLTS Report: Job Openings Data in Focus

On Tuesday, March 11, the US labor market will be back in focus after the February Jobs Report. Economists forecast JOLTS job openings to rise from 7.6 million in December to 7.75 million in January.

A larger job openings reading could ease immediate recession fears. Rising employment could bolster consumer confidence and wage growth. With private consumption accounting for over 60% of US GDP, rising wages may boost consumer spending and the economy. A rosier demand outlook could drive demand for German-listed stocks.

Conversely, an unexpected fall in job openings could intensify speculation about a US recession, impacting risk assets.

Beyond the data, traders should monitor tariff developments for market direction.

Near-Term Outlook

The DAX’s near-term trajectory will depend on ECB policy, tariff developments, and fiscal policy progress:

• Bearish Scenario: Rising US-EU trade tensions, limited fiscal progress in Germany, and a hawkish ECB could push the DAX below 22,500.
• Bullish Scenario: A dovish ECB stance, easing trade tensions, and fiscal policy advancements could drive the DAX toward a record high of 23,476.

As of Tuesday morning, US futures pointed to a cautious start to the session, with the Nasdaq 100 mini up 30 points.

DAX Technical Indicators

Daily Chart

Despite the March 10 sell-off, the DAX remains well above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Recent trends indicate heightened volatility, even as the broader trend remains bullish.

If the DAX returns to 23,000, the bulls could target the record high of 23,476 next. A break above 23,476 may support a move toward 23,750, a key resistance level.

Conversely, a DAX break below 22,500 could bring 22,000 into sight. A fall through 22,000 may enable the bears to target the 50-day EMA.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54.29 suggests the DAX could climb to the March 6 record high of 23,476 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).

Final Thoughts

Tariff-related news, central bank policies, and Germany’s fiscal goals remain key drivers for the DAX. Traders should monitor:

• Tariff-related updates and potential US-EU trade disputes.
• ECB forward guidance.
• Germany’s fiscal strategy, defense spending, and infrastructure funding.
• US labor market data and inflation trends.

With market volatility elevated, staying ahead of policy shifts and technical trends is essential for identifying trading opportunities. View our latest reports here.