DAX Index News: Will US CPI & Tariffs Push DAX Toward 18,750? Key Analysis Inside

DAX Tumbles Amid US Tariff Jitters and Weak Earnings

On Tuesday, November 12, the DAX tumbled 2.13%, reversing a 1.21% gain from the previous session, closing at 19,034.

Market concerns about Trump tariffs on China and potentially the EU intensified, impacting demand for DAX-listed stocks. Corporate earnings also weighed.

Major Stock Movers

Bayer tumbled 14.5% amid concerns about a waning agricultural sector potentially impacting near-term earnings. Brenntag slid by 8.16 following an earnings miss.

The auto sector was under renewed selling pressure as fears over potential US tariffs on EU autos and weak demand from China weighed. Mercedes Benz Group and BMW saw losses of 1.49% and 0.91%, respectively. Daimler Truck Holding, Porsche, and Volkswagen also closed lower.

German Inflation and Economic Sentiment Pressure Stocks

Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index dropped from 13.1 in October to 7.4 in November. Analysts were more pessimistic about the current economic situation following Trump’s presidential election win. The report highlighted sentiment toward Trump’s victory and potential trade implications.

ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach commented on the survey, noting,

“Economic expectations for Germany have been overshadowed by Trump’s victory and the collapse of the German government coalition. In the current survey, economic sentiment has declined – and the outcome of the US presidential election is likely to be the main reason for this. The fact that economic expectations for the USA are clearly rising, while economic sentiment for China and the eurozone is falling, supports this view.”

Meanwhile, finalized German inflation figures failed to influence sentiment toward a December ECB rate cut. Germany’s annual inflation rate increased from 1.6% in September to 2.0% in October, confirming preliminary figures.

US Equity Markets Dip Ahead of CPI Report

On Tuesday, November 12, US equity markets succumbed to profit-taking ahead of Wednesday’s crucial US CPI Report. The Dow dropped 0.86%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index saw declines of 0.09% and 0.29%, respectively, ending the Nasdaq’s five-day winning streak.

Notably, Tesla Inc. (TSLA) dropped 6.15%.

US CPI Report and Fed Outlook

On Wednesday, November 13, the US CPI Report will likely impact sentiment toward the Fed rate path and demand for riskier assets. Economists expect the annual core inflation rate to remain at 3.3% in October, with headline inflation rising from 2.4% in September to 2.6% in October.

Hotter-than-expected inflation figures would likely reduce investor bets on a December Fed rate cut, potentially dragging the DAX toward 18,750. Conversely, softer inflation may push the DAX toward 19,350 on December rate cut expectations.

FOMC member commentary could also influence sentiment toward the Fed rate path. Investors should consider reactions to the US CPI Report and views on the timing of a Fed rate cut.

Near-Term Outlook

In the near term, DAX trends will likely hinge on US tariff-related news, potential stimulus measures from Beijing, and the US CPI Report. Tariff jitters and a hotter-than-expected US CPI Report could impact demand for DAX-listed stocks. This pressure may drive the index down toward 18,750. However, a Beijing stimulus plan targeting consumer demand could mitigate some negative effects.

As of Wednesday morning, futures suggest a mixed opening. DAX futures gained 15 points, while the Nasdaq mini futures were down 54 points.

Investors should track the US CPI Report, Trump-related news, Beijing stimulus-related chatter, and central bank comments to manage risks effectively.

DAX Technical Indicators

Daily Chart

After Tuesday’s sell-off, the DAX sits below the 50-day EMA, while remaining above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs sent bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

A DAX break above the 50-day EMA could signal a move toward 19,350. Furthermore, a breakout from 19,350 could pave the way for moves toward 19,500, with the potential to reach the all-time high of 19,675.

Central bank commentary, the US CPI Report, and Trump policies require consideration.

Conversely, a DAX drop below 19,000 could indicate a fall toward the 18,750 level.

With the 14-day RSI at 45.09, the DAX may drop below 18,750 before entering oversold territory.