Dogecoin (DOGE) Elliott Wave Analysis: Early Bullish Signs Seen

Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently at a crucial juncture, consolidating near key Fibonacci support while maintaining its larger Elliott Wave structure. The next move—whether a breakout intoa new uptrend or a deeper correction—will shape DOGE’s short-term trajectory. This analysis examines key technical levels and potential scenarios for the next price movement.

DOGE Price Analysis

Dogecoin has been in a corrective phase following its strong bullish impulse in late 2024, where Wave 3 peaked at approximately $0.48. This was first in November, and later on Dec. 8, when the price retested the high, finding resistance again. 

Since then, DOGE has been undergoing Wave 4 consolidation, forming a descending channel that has brought the price down to $0.25 at its lowest wick on Dec. 20 but quickly snapped back and closed the daily candle at $0.30. Historically, this level has acted as strong support, making it a key zone to watch.

Despite the retracement, DOGE remains within a broader bullish framework, as long as the price holds above the $0.30 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart indicates weak momentum, though a potential bullish divergence is forming, suggesting that the selling pressure could be slowing down.

Key resistance lies at $0.37 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement), which previously rejected upward moves. If DOGE can break this resistance on strong volume, it would signal a potential start to Wave 5.

However, if DOGE fails to maintain support at $0.33, further downside pressure could push it toward $0.30 (0.786 Fib level). A confirmed breakdown below $0.30 would invalidate the bullish scenario and could lead to a deeper correction towards $0.26, extending Wave 4 further.

Since Dec. 20, we saw an ascending channel that brought the price to a high of $0.43 on Jan. 18, which could be the first sub-wave of the next bull phase. However, as it made a breakout below the ascending support on the following downturn, it could also be the second counterpart of a complex correction count inside wave 4. 

DOGE Price Prediction

The 1-hour chart provides a more detailed view of Wave 4’s development, showing a complex ABC correction that is nearing completion. The price is currently testing the lower boundary of an ascending wedge, suggesting an imminent breakout or breakdown.

A bullish breakout above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $0.34 would confirm the start of Wave 5, with initial targets at $0.37 and $0.42. The RSI on the hourly timeframe is showing hidden bullish divergence, indicating that buying pressure might be increasing. If DOGE breaks this key level with strong volume, it could quickly rally toward its previous high of $0.48.

However, if DOGE fails to break above $0.37 and experiences rejection, further downside risk remains. A break below $0.30 could confirm an extended Wave 4, with support likely at $0.26 (1.0 Fibonacci retracement). This would indicate a prolonged correction phase before the next bullish impulse.

Overall, DOGE’s price action remains at a critical inflection point. If buyers step in at current levels and push DOGE above $0.34, bullish momentum will likely resume. However, failure to hold support could lead to further losses before the anticipated Wave 5 expansion.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $0.34 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Key Support: $0.30 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Support: $0.26 (1.0 Fibonacci retracement).
• Short-Term Target: Above $0.42 if bullish momentum sustains.
• Invalidation Zone: Below $0.30, signaling further downside risk.