Dogecoin Price Forecast: Will DOGE Fall Below $0.10 in May 2024?

Insights:

Dogecoin price tumbled as low as $0.12 on May 1, after closing April 2024 with losses in excess of 45%, recent on-chain movements observed among DOGE miners suggests more downside ahead. 

Dogecoin Sheds $3.7 Billion Market Cap in 10-days

DOGE price trend in April 2024 has been erratic. After the global crypto market cap has sent the largest memecoin by market capitalization spiraling to a monthly low of $0.129 on April 13,  Dogecoin showed strong recovery signals in the build up to the DOGE Day anniversary on April 20.

However, the chart above shows that the mid-April recovery was effectively short-lived as sellers seized control of the major Proof-of-Work coins in the wake of the Bitcoin halving, which had also coincided with DOGE day commemoration.

At the time of writing on May 1, DOGE price has surrendered its mid-April gains, falling as low as $0.12 within the daily timeframe. A closer look shows that DOGE price is now down 20% in the last 10-days, wiping out over $3.7 billion from its market capitalization in the process.

DOGE Miners Pilling on More Sell-Pressure

Looking beyond the price action, recent on-chain movements observed among Dogecoin miners suggest the downward trend could linger.

IntoTheBlock’s miner reserves chart below monitors swings in DOGE balances held in custody of prominent Dogecoin mining firms.

As of April 25, Dogecoin miners held a cumulative balance of 4.14 billion DOGE. But as the bearish headwind surrounded the PoW markets, the miners entered a selling frenzy. The latest data on May 1 shows a balance of 4.07 billion DOGE in the miners cumulative reserves.

Effectively, Dogecoin miners flooded the markets 70 million DOGE in the last 5 days. The newly-offloaded coins are worth $9.5 million when valued at today’s prices.

While $9.5 million may be insignificant relative to the daily trading volume in the Dogecoin spot market, the miners influence and systemic importance within the ecosystem means that many other stakeholders often take bearish positions once they start selling.

Dogecoin Price Forecast: $0.10 Support at Risk

Unsurprisingly, since the DOGE miners latest $9.5 million sell-off wave began on April 25, Dogecoin price has failed to post a green candle. If it persists, Dogecoin price stands risk of a major breakdown below $0.10.

However, IntoTheBlock’s global in/out of money (GIOM) data suggest, DOGE could find support at the $0.12 territory in the near-term. As seen below 1.1 million existing holders had acquired 33.74 billion DOGE at the average price of $0.11.

Those holders could prevent a breakdown below $0.10 if they make frantic covering purchases to avoid slipping into a net-loss position.

On the contrary, if the Dogecoin market witnesses a demand surge, bulls could target a $0.20 retest. However, this seems far-fetched within the current landscape as early profit-taking from 232,400 holders that acquired 6.44 billion DOGE at the average price of $0.15 could trigger an instant reversal.