Investors may have expected that Dogecoin (DOGE) and Pepe (PEPE) would have collapsed after Trump’s tariff announcements, Powell’s reluctance to lower interest rates, and China’s retaliatory levies.
However, the market is behaving counterintuitively, as if often does, as these two meme coins are actually rallying despite the negative implications that all of these macro developments could have on crypto valuations.
DOGE, the largest meme coin by market cap in the meme coin space, has surged by 8.5% in the past 24 hours while PEPE has gone up by 10% during this same period as market participants seem to believe that tariffs could actually benefit risky assets.
The baseline scenario now on Wall Street is that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut rates not two times, but actually four times this year as tariffs will cause a recession in the near term.
Lower GDP growth and higher unemployment could surely force Powell’s hand and prompt him to cut rates once the full impact of these policy decisions is evidenced in the numbers.
The odds of a 1.25% cut to the current federal funds rate, which would place it at around 3%, more than doubled this morning after China decided to impose a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports.
This perception, which will not necessarily materialize as expected, could fuel a rally in risky assets as lower rates support higher prices across financial assets as risk premiums drop.
So, how are DOGE and PEPE looking after today’s rally?
Dogecoin has bounced off a key trend line support today. The token found support at around $0.1560 and seems to be heading to retest key Fibonacci levels in the next few days.
However, momentum indicators are still favoring a bearish outlook as the MACD’s histogram was already on a downtrend and heading to negative levels.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is retesting the signal line from below. Another rejection of a move above this curve will likely confirm a bearish outlook as it would indicate that demand is insufficient to support a more pronounced climb.
The most relevant support to watch for DOGE is found at $0.1420. A break below this level could result in a drop to $0.1285, meaning a downside risk of 9.5% downside risk.
A confirmed break above the 61.8% Fibonacci would invalidate a bearish outlook in the daily chart. Meanwhile, a rejection would confirm the bearish thesis. This scenario would offer the highest risk-reward ratio to traders.
PEPE experienced a bearish breakout off a rising wedge last Saturday and has been declining since then.
This token’s chart looks pretty similar to DOGE’s with one important difference, the token appears to have already retested the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
This means that today’s uptick could end up being a dead cat bounce as traders gather up enough liquidity to trap short-sellers and prompt a much steeper decline to lower lows by triggering a cascade of stop-loss orders along the way.
The nearest support for PEPE stands at $0.000006360. A break below this area could result in a 16.5% loss in the near term.
Same as with DOGE, the RSI seems poised to retest the signal line from below during today’s session while the MACD has swung to negative territory.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis