E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Complacency Indicator Starting to Flash

September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures surged to a record high on Monday, lifted by Nvidia and other technology stocks. In June, the NASDAQ became the first of the major Wall Street indexes to recoup its coronavirus-induced losses as several of its largest constituents, including Amazon.com Inc. and Netflix, Inc., benefited from curbs on social activity.

On Monday, September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 11286.75, up 153.00 or +1.36%.

Nvidia Corp. was among the top boosts to the NASDAQ for the day, surging 6.7% to a record high after two analysts raised their price targets ahead of the chipmaker’s quarterly results on Wednesday.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed after buyers took out the last main top at 11283.25. A trade through 11300.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The main trend will change to down on a move through 10845.50. This is highly unlikely but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the index is trading inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The new minor range is 10845.50 to 11312.25. Its 50% level at 11078.75 is support.

The main range is 10301.00 to 11312.25. If the main trend changes to down then look for the selling to extend into its retracement zone at 10806.50 to 10687.25.

Short-Term Outlook

Earnings season is winding down, investors are shrugging off the stalemate in Congress over a new fiscal aid package and the election is less than 90 days away. Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases continue to rise. Yet the NASDAQ Composite is sitting on an all-time high while the VIX (Volatility Index) is back to levels last seen in February.

I can’t put my finger on the catalyst yet, but investors are getting a little too complacent, which could mean a major correction is just around the corner. Don’t buck the trend, but start watching for signs of a top. P.S. You may have to watch until after the U.S. Labor Day holiday on September.