E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 34514 Sets the Tone

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are inching higher on low volume early Friday as Wall Street awaited the key June jobs report and another glimpse at the recovering U.S. labor market.

U.S. investors await the Labor Department’s all-important monthly jobs report that on Friday will show how many payrolls American employers added last month.

At 10:26 GMT, September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 34533, up 19 or +0.06%.

Economists expect Non-Farm Payrolls grew by 706,000 jobs in June and that the unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.8%, according to Dow Jones. If employers added as many jobs as expected, the print would top the 559,000 jobs created in May.

The average hourly wage is estimated to have jumped 0.3% on a month-over-month basis, and climbed 3.6% over the last 12 months. The government’s weekly report on first-time jobless claims, published Thursday morning, came in at 364,000 and set a pandemic-era low.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 34711 and 34721 will reaffirm the uptrend. Taking out 34006 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 34721 to 32902. The market is trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 34026 to 33812, making it support.

The main range is 31842 to 34883. Its retracement zone at 33363 to 33004 is the major support. It’s controlling the longer-term direction of the Dow.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 34514.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 34514 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at 34578 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration into the pair of main tops at 34711 and 34721. They are the last potential resistance before the all-time high at 34883.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 34514 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a minor pivot at 34292. If this level fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the support cluster at 34026 to 34006.

Taking out 34006 will change the main trend to down with 33812 the next potential downside target.