Based on the late session trade, the direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index over the near-term is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 7572.00.
Technology stocks are trading well-off their highs as we approach the end of the trading session. The market has had trouble recovering early session strength since the release of the Fed’s monetary policy statement at 1800 GMT. Despite the early spike to the upside, the index is now in a position to post a lower close for the session. This closing price reversal chart pattern will indicate the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels.
At 2004 GMT, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 7595.00, down 0.25 or -0.00%.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, Wednesday’s price action suggests momentum may be shifting to the downside. The chart pattern also suggests that a secondary lower top may be forming.
The minor trend changes to down on a trade through 7473.75. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 7422.25.
The short-term range is 7723.50 to 7420.50. Its retracement zone at 7572.00 to 7607.75 is controlling the near-term direction of the market.
The main range is 7193.50 to 7723.50. Its retracement zone at 7458.50 to 7396.00 is the primary downside target. This zone is major support. It stopped the selling on September 7 at 7420.25 and on September 18 at 7422.25.
Based on the late session trade, the direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index over the near-term is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 7572.00.
A sustained move over 7572.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could drive the market into the Fibonacci level at 7607.75. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with 7668.00 the next target.
A sustained move under 7572.00 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart is wide open to the downside under this level with the next major target coming in at 7458.50.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.