E-mini NASDAQ Charts Show No Support Until 12968.00

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are testing their low for the session 30-minutes before the cash market close on Wednesday. The tech-driven index is being pressured by escalating tensions in Ukraine after the country declared a state of emergency and the West, led by the United States, unveiled more sanctions against Russia over its partial invasion into eastern Ukraine.

At 20:35 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 13567.75, down 295.00 or -2.13%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) is at $330.76, down $7.32 or -2.17%.

The worsening geopolitical tensions have hurt investor sentiment already dented by worries about aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation.

The cash market NASDAQ Composite has tumbled more than 15% so far this year, while the S&P 500 confirmed a correction in the previous session as 70% of its components slipped more than 10% from their record highs and over 200 stocks lost more than 20% of their value.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The next major target is the May 12, 2021 main bottom at 12968.00. A trade through 14668.50 will change the main trend to up.

The index is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at 13984.25 to 14515.75, making it resistance.

Short-Term Outlook

Unless there is a dramatic technical reversal to the upside, which would correspond with the breakout of peace in Eastern Europe, we’re looking for the current selling pressure to accelerate into at least 12968.00.

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 13862.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 13862.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move continues to generate enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 12968.00. If this level fails then the March 8, 2021 main bottom at 12263.50 will become the next downside objective.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 13862.75 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a late session short-covering rally into the long-term Fibonacci level at 13984.25. Overtaking this level will indicate the rally is getting stronger with the long-term 50% level at 14515.75 the next major target.